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Monday, 27 March 2017

Statistical Update! The King(maker) is dead! Long live the Queen!

Typical, the day I put out a post on the latest political polling in New Zealand Colmar Brunton has to go an release a brand new poll: just to skew my numbers I suspect.

OK, so I need to update my figures for the last post, not all of them but a few things have changed significantly.

And those significant changes are:

Say Hello to Leadership Crisis x 2!

Jacinda Ardern (9%) is now more popular than Andrew Little (7%) as preferred PM. Just last month Jacinda was 4% but 30 days later she shoots up 5% while Andrew has not changed.

Putting that into perspective the second most popular person for PM is now Jacinda Ardern where two months ago she was 1%. Holly molly!

Meanwhile Bill English sheds 5% to now sit at 26% which when compared to his predecessors popularity is shockingly bad. Bill will be certainly starting to worry (and look over his shoulder) now as his popularity evaporates.Eeeeeeeeek!

Say hello to our new Kingmaker.

But the most interesting changes are the rise of the Maori Party to 4% (up 2%) and the decline of New Zealand First to 8% (down 3%).

The rest of the numbers for the major party's numbers have not changed with National still on 46%, Labour on 30% and the Greens still on 11%.

Which in the coalition game leads us to the following:

National/Maori - 50%
Labour/Greens - 41%

So even if NZ First throws its support in behind Labour and The Greens it wont be enough, at best it will be a close (but no cigar) 49%.  

And now NZ First may have to start thinking about how to whats next on the campaign trail with the coming election while the Maori Party have the power to keep National in power which unless changed means that the long held kingmaker position of NZ First has been cut out from under him.

So I think we could call these game changing developments and I will be commenting on the Labour leadership situation in my next post.

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