Elections 2017: So you say you want a coalition

This is probably one of the last in the Elections 2017 series and a topic which we always had to address, but like finding a nest of spiders in your sock draw its not a pleasant one to deal with.

Musically aware readers may notice right off the bat that the title of this post is essential a play on the opening line to the Beatles 1968 song Revolution, in which the group, but mostly John Lennon, express some concerns about some of the revolutionary sentiment going round at the time (this was 1968 after all)*.

Well, you know, I am not writing a hit pop song or having any concerns about the revolutionary mood in this day and age but I do have some issues with the current bout of horse-trading that’s passing for “coalition negotiations” at the moment.

As I noted in my last post the end result of a fair and democratic election is a highly undemocratic process where the various parties begin to wheel and deal in order to form a government.

“But that is politics under MMP!” I hear you cry in anguish at my failure to understand the obviousness of Mixed Member Proportional politics.

Well Sparky, you may be right but before you go betting the farm you might want to consider that be it MMP or FPP both systems for running democratic elections have very clear rules and structures which MUST be followed to ensure that the election process remains fair and democratic so why not the same with the process for making a coalition?

This is why election advertising must be down before vote day, this is why advertising budgets are controlled, this is why there are observers and a whole galaxy of rules and regulations starting all the way down at how voting should be conducted on the day (as noted on the vote form and how the polling place is setup) up to who gets to sign off on the final outcome (technically the Governor General when they formally appoint the PM and next government).

All of these things ensure that the end result is free and fair and NZ gets to boast that it remains a democratic state rather than many of countries which like to pretend they are democratic (for example China, Thailand, North Korea, Zimbabwe, Kenya, Australia and the US of A**) but in reality are not.

So it’s pretty clear that these rules and regulations exist to ensure a fair result yet as soon as the populace has completed voting we step away from the clean and orderly streets of election town and cross the tracks into the crack house ghettos of coalition negotiations where anything goes and nothing is off the table.

Imagine its evening time, the sky is a fiery red, the day time traffic has faded away and the people of the night have come out. Imagine further, Bill English dressed up as a street walker outfit (stockings, short skirt, heavy lipstick and hair teased just so) standing on a street corner trying to attract the attention of any potential customers.

Now here comes a shiny black Beemer cruising down the way, Bill tosses his mane and strikes a pose that says “Hey baby, wanna party?” The car pulls up to the curb and the tinted windows roll down, with a whine of servos, to reveal the Cheshire cat grin (and silver mane) of Winston Peters.

The pair briefly discuss terms there on the street before, with a flash of shaved leg, Bill hops in and the Winstonmobile rolls off to some secluded back alley to complete the deal. Soon Bill is back on the boulevard looking for the next customer but is now joined by Steven Joyce in skin tight boob tube and skirt while Jacinda (rocking the “girl next door” look but still clearly on the make) plys her trade across the way.***

This might be a somewhat colourful description of the process but all the essential elements are there as this is not some clean cut business deal between buyer and seller but one party prostituting those that voted for them to anyone who will pay their fee. The only thing we don’t know is if Bill English is addicted to P and walking the street to fiancé his drug habit.

I am aware that there cannot be a rule for everything and every situation and that countries round the world which have had coalition governments have to go through a similar process but as NZ has a political system which has thrown up two previous coalition governments in the last 20 years (along with various confidence and supply situations) and both of these did not end well so I don’t think it’s a long ask to have some basic format to how these things go which is not a slightly more glamorous version of the world oldest occupation.

Even worse is that this situation was clear to every voter and their dog months before we even went to the polls but the process is still being run (or at least covered by the media) as if this is some shock outcome which no body has had time to prepare for so we had better just wait while peeps figure this out.

And let’s not get our heads twisted round the idea that this can only be done after the fact of voting has taken place. The only difference between the before and after is that the numbers have firmed up, which does not stop parties from setting out positions, no go areas and discussing the matter before the big day, which some, to their credit (see the Greens and Labour) have been able to do.

Perhaps things would be different if it was not Winston Peters, again, being the person to which everyone is waiting on for an answer, perhaps a less capricious kingmaker might just have gotten down to brass tacks but then again the only other possible king maker out there (not really but let’s never discount the unlikely as an option) is the Greens and I think the stomping the party got at the polls (just over the 5% threshold) means they will probably not be too keen to make any risky moves by going out to play with National.

And if I may borrow some further lyrics from Revolution I would “like to see the plan” for what Winston has in mind because I read in the paper that Peters has refused to get back to people until all the special votes are counted on October the 12^th which is nothing more than stone cold BS as a few percentage points or an extra seat is not going to fix the issues of policy and personality that are really what Winston is all about when it coalition time.

What is needed here is not set rules about coalition building but principles. Some basic principles about how a party might make a coalition set out before the election might go a long way to giving voters some certainty about the post-election coitus interruptus that we are all now suffering because if voters knew more about which way a party would swing in a coalition situation it would probably make for a different outcome.

Then there is the fact that the 5% threshold seem both a barrier to minor parties but also a safeguard against chaos in parliament.

In fact, I think part of the reason Winston lost his seat in Northlands and the party slipped back in the polls is because he was so obtuse about which way he was likely to go. Winston was so busy making sure that he was greased and ready for any action that came his way that he nullified his actual appeal to voters who saw NZ First as a party less about any specific or identified principle and more set up to get the greatest windfall for its leader post-election.

Winston’s rhetoric this election has been a far cry from his glory days with the Winebox and its shows.

Gone are the days when Winston could cause chaos and fear in the halls of power, in the 90s (specially before 96) he had more than one MP and senior civil servant on the ropes and seemed a genuine folk hero, exposing corruption and bad behavior as the then National Government was caught in a number of scandals relating to the Winebox. These days the resonance is just not there and saying National has a Chinese spy in its midst (which may or may not be true) just does not cut it.

So like the song says

You say you'll change the constitution
Well you know
We all want to change your head
You tell me it's the institution
Well you know
You better free your mind instead

The only thing about this process I like is that I still believe that I know the outcome (see my post about the The Daffodils of Change) and that the reality of this situation is that it’s not a 50/50 spilt like people keep saying or that Winston is supporting a deeply unpopular second term government into a third but that this is a deeply unpopular (yes even with its 46 percent) third term government who is desperate to remain in power in the face for a broad base of calls for change (Labour, Greens and yes even NZ First if Winston’s supporters are to be believed).

That the situation of NZ First/National does not behoove players like Shane Jones (with his Labour pedigree) or the general tone of party supporters means that any deal with National risks going against a greater grain than if he goes with Labour and the Greens.

But Winston is Winston and Winston will do what Winston does so we now get to watch this single individual dither around for another two weeks while the sheckles change hands before getting to the money shot (so to speak) of going with Labour.

So if Winston is going to carry to carry round a picture of Bill English he aint going make it with anyone anyhow and I say that because Winston is know to have apologized to NZ First voters in the later 90's (specifically in his then electorate of Tauranga) for his going with National in 96 when the mood of the nation (much like it is now) was not conductive to three more years of their antics.

So, don't you know its going to be alright.

Alright?

*-Later on Lennon plunged a lot more whole heartedly into the spirit of the age but at this point he was still on the fence.

**-I might be wrong about the two of those examples
***-To be fair we could have had Winston in the short skirt and on the street corner but it just seemed better having Bill do the cross dressing.

Got Democracy?

Well we can’t say we did not see it coming.

Yes folks, here we are, again, for the third time in recent memory as we get to play another exciting game of “What does Winston want, and is it worth it to give it to him?”

But first the numbers.

National got the bulk of those who actually bothered to vote (more on that in a moment) while Labour pulled back those previously wayward voters (you know the ones that had voted Green the past few elections) while the Greens only just escaped electoral annihilation and NZ First (despite its reduced vote numbers) ended up where we expected them to be; sitting in position of deciding where NZ will go for the next three years.

The Maori Party and Mana were obliterated at the ballot box by voters who had tired of their piss-poor antics while Gareth Morgan acted like a spoilt child/very rich man when voters did not flock to his banner of rational populism.

Finally the voters of Epsom confirmed their kinky fetish for David Seymour and ACT by returning him to parliament but probably in opposition.

And it seems that after such a democratic process as this election was (because we don’t have easily manipulated electronic voting machines or people dropping off pre-stuffed ballot boxes at polling places) that now having to wait while a single individual decides the outcome for us is extremely undemocratic.

One question on people minds is "what will his price be and will it be worth it because the last two governments which did a deal with the devil got exactly what they bargained for in the end?"

With that in mind I am torn between wanting Winston to back National right into the god awful outcome they are going to get as a fourth term government, struggling with a mess of problems of their own making and wanting Winnie to throw in his lot with Labour, usher some change to NZ before the inevitable substance hits the fan.

In the end the real losers will be both parties because if you’re dependent on a highly capricious third party, with the moral scruples of a predatory fish, to get you into government then you will get burnt no matter what the outcome is. The only winner in this scenario is Winston (and I mean just Winston: not NZ First or any of those who voted for him).

Of course no power seeking politician in their greed addled mind will give up a shot at the throne so instead of expecting Bill English or Jacinda Ardern to say no to the poisoned chalice we will more likely get to watch them twist, turn and dance like puppets to the dictates of Winston before one of them blinks and the other gets the crown.

All of this is standard stuff for NZ politics and nothing we have not seen before but what is interesting is that voter turnout only just cracked 78% (up slightly from previous elections) which leaves over 20% of the voting populace too apathetic to vote and has killed dead any idea that there was a generational shift about to take place in NZ politics with some sort of “youth quake” reshaping the political landscape.

So it seems that Mike Hosking was right all along and for the next few days (or possibly weeks) we get to cool our heels while Winston Peters cuts a deal with either Bill or Jacinda over the future of NZ.

Speculation at this point is invited and the media has already started trying to figure out the puzzle but as I have said before even on the best of days it could still come down to how tight Winston’s pants are or what colour a reporter’s shirt is so there is only so much room for figuring the angles.

Best case scenario has nothing to do with what party he supports but rather how well the damage can be mitigated by which ever party comes after. The next best outcome is he supports Labour because “change” (and because watching Bill English implode as his dreams of PM are cruelly snatched way remain an entertaining prospect) while the least preferred option is another three years of National doing little because Winston has them by the short and curly’s.

But despite all such manoeuvring only one true question remains.

Is the fact that one fifth of the population not bothering to vote, and by extension handing over the whole outcome to one individual to decide “democracy in action” or something else? Is that populism kiwi-style? 

I really don't know.

Elections 2017: See you on the other side

Readers may have noted the lacks of posts here recently which has been because I have a) other things to be doing with my time, and b) there seemed to be nothing left to comment about in regards to the electoral process.

As of today I have been commenting, reading, writing, researching and generally thinking about NZ politics since I started this blog (ironically on September 23 last year) at a near daily level and the only change is that I have, for the third time in my life, come full circle and realised how loathsome and degrading politics really is.

Yes that’s right, not one, two, but three times I have now come back to the inevitable conclusion, towering above me like some dark monolith, that politics is a wretched soul destroying pursuit which delivers minimal outcomes for maximum pain.

The signs were all there for those who do read this blog to see and for me the heady rush of politics soon degraded into something akin to bitter cynicism which needed to be stomped out rapidly and without mercy lest it infect the rest of me.

But to cut a long story short the end came quickly when I watched Steven Joyce lying his heart out and caring not a damn that all and sundry knew he was a dirty little doggie that had been caught soiling the rug.

That said this is not to ascribe some saintly virtue to any other party or politician this electoral cycle because all have been behaving just as expected by making promises they are unlikely to keep or acting just so in order to get votes.

And I find myself again faced with the rather dark, and bitter, realisation that a much younger self had in 1996 when I voted for the first time almost instantly regretted it. Long story short I voted for Winston on the basis of his promises to remove national and felt like a heart broken lover when he sidled up with National post-election.

But this is not all negative as I have had plans to wrench the content of this blog away from the increasingly narrow focus it had developed on NZ politics and more accurately NZ politicians and political parties, and it took getting to this state to motivate me to do it.

So apart from some post-election coverage readers will notice a shift in content on this blog as I return to some of the wider topics I covered when I was over at Kiwipolitico and here on this blog.

There are plenty of great blogs out there doing NZ politics and by simply focusing on just that I was painting myself into a niche I was never happy, or comfortable, being in.

So after this Saturday I will be returning to some of the things I have been wanting to do and will be putting NZ politics on the backburner until something significant of note happens.

In post terms this means more posts about places in the world that interest me (and those requested by readers); more posts dealing with issues facing our society (both NZ and the wider world) and more material which is less about politics and more about anything else I am wanting to write about (history, culture, military affairs, art and perhaps even some of my fiction). Who knows I may even find time to review a book or film from time to time.

I am not sure if readers will like this change but at the end of the day I blog as an outlet for me rather than for other people but I do enjoy it if others do get something from my oft demented output.

So good luck space-monkeys, see you next week and don’t forget to vote (whoever it is for).

E.A.Blair

PS – No post about Gareth Morgan and TOP will be posted pre-election (even though it has been written) as there was just not enough of substance in a political party that is less than a year old to do anything with so that post has been shelved until after election day when we can see what kind of future the party has. 

Elections 2017: The daffodils of change

If this election has been my medicine then I am now off my meds.

There are three weeks still to go before this election is “officially” over but for me it ended this morning when I saw daffodils in Hagley Park.

“Daffodils?” You ask (somewhat puzzled). “Yes, daffodils” I reply.

Daffodils: a quintessential symbol of spring, a whole gaggle of daffodils shooting forth from the grass along the river bank and under the trees. Daffodils: signalling the end of the cold damp winter and heralding the eventual return of warmer, balmy summer days.

See where this metaphor is going?

Spring is in the air, yes we have had a few showers now and then but there is a definite warming and I no longer find my cat hidden under my duvet, looking at me with indignant eyes that say “do you mind, your letting the heat out”*.

Of course spring does not mean summer just yet but it’s those little barometers of nature which know better than the weatherman which way things are going.

And it was in that unguarded moment when I saw those daffodils that its image struck straight through the crust of the conscious mind in into the deep depths of my subconscious, when I realised that even with three weeks to go this election was over.

It’s over, dear reader, not because the calendar says it’s so, not because the polls say it’s so (although they are looking rather daffodil-like at this time) and not because the politicians say it’s so but because the daffodils say it is so.

But before I announce the winner let us consider the losers first.

ACT

To say that David Seymour and ACT have been irrelevant this election is completely incorrect as David has been politically irrelevant since the day he got gifted his seat in the house and the party has been irrelevant since the mid-2000s.

Nothing he or the party does has any meaning or bearing on the political landscape of NZ and they know it.

I don’t even consider them when I look at poll results and apart from a few obligatory pieces I see in the media, written to give the illusion of “equal coverage”, there is nothing he can say or do that will prevent him and the party from being identified as a bunch of misguided zealots with the same dangerous and outdated ideas that got NZ into this mess in the first place.

Also with the numbers looking close there might not even be the safety of National standing aside in Epsom to get him back into parliament as ACT poll so far below the margin of error that its clear they exists only by the grace of National.

So ACT gets a giant L for “looser” stamped on its hand and we can consign them to the dustbin of history.

MAORI/MANA

For a while the alliance of the Maori Party and Mana seemed like a good idea as its avoided splitting any potential votes and pooled resources for the coming campaign.

However Tuku Morgan’s plan to use Labour as whipping boy for all of the their ill fortune only worked somewhat even when Andrew Little was still leading Labour, as even then their polling still never climbed above 2%, but took a complete nose dive when Jacinda Ardern took over.

The Maori Party irrepably soiled its name when it hitched its waka to National for one season too many and even the recent comments by Marama Fox that they would be willing to work Labour are not going to help it get back all those Maori seats Labour holds.

If National is gone in government then so too will the Maori party be gone. They might retain their current seat or even pull back a seat or two from Labour (although I have yet to see anything which indicates that) but there will be no seat at the cabinet table for them in a Labour government after both the Party and the Maori King (at the urging of Tuku) decided to denounce Labour in no uncertain terms.

Gone by Monday the 25^th of September.

GREENS

There is not much left to say about the sad and sorry saga that has been the Green party in the last 12 months so I will simply summarize here by saying that James Shaw ran an unsuccessful internal coup on the party to seize control which tore the party apart and destroyed the Green brand as the only principled party in NZ politics.

Shaw now gets to be leader in all but name (as he is still calling himself “co-leader” but he is fooling nobody) but he is the leader of a party that had a 15% poll rating only two months ago and is now hovering around the 5% threshold like a soap bubble circling the drain.

Probably worst of all is that Shaw might survive this election but under his leadership the party is doomed to be seen as nothing more than a bunch of Champagne environmentalists playing at politics rather than a genuine political party.

Back to the compost heap.

NZ FIRST

Wait, what?

Oh yes, NZ First faithful, even Winston is going to lose this election because despite being the potential “kingmaker” again this election it’s clear that his mojo aint what it used to be and the recent slip in the polls show the party also hovering only slightly higher than the Greens at the 5% threshold.

But what about Winston power to anoint the new PM I hear you cry?

So what? Winston gets to choose the king but he will never get to be the king and that’s what he wants. Also this election will be Winston’s last tilt at the windmill and in order to secure his legacy in NZ politics he has to avoid making the ruinous choices he made in 1996 and 2005 when he backed the wrong horse and saw him being cursed rather than heaped in hosannas.

This election Winston has to make the right choice and while he is not in the looser category like ACT, the GREENS or MAORI/MANA at best he gets to redeem himself rather than reap the rewards that this election could have brought.

It’s not his polling or his cruddy party members that put him in this bracket but the simple fact that when he goes NZ First goes also and that for a man on whose shoulders so much has rested he has twice made the wrong choice for New Zealand (ie the job of a MP) in order to benefit himself in the short term.

So this September, when Labour and National come calling, Winnie has only one choice but to support the winner (see who that is below) or be consigned to the same dustbin that Peter Dunne and United Future went into (slightly different to the dustbin that ACT is going into) as a malingering political mercenary who never lived up to the promise he had.

If he does not his legacy will be similar to many of his fellow MPs (think how people like John Banks and Gerry Brownlee are viewed) and that is not what he wants, deep down Winston wants to be loved.

And now we come to our runner up, drum roll please…

NATIONAL

Sorry readers from Kiwiblog, I know a few of you over there really dig Bill & Co but it’s time to accept that has not been a good year for National or their political fortunes.

Ever since John Key left, National has been forced to get by on its own means without the gigantic crutch that Key’s popularity was for them and its shown.

Little that Bill and the B Team have done in the last 10 months has resonated with the electorate or helped stave off the ravenous monster that Jacindamania has been.

What’s worse is that had Andrew Little stayed leader of Labour it was almost a given that Bill would get to be PM and see National into a fourth term. What stings even more is that they (and Key) knew this and they did everything they could to keep Little in play rather than let Jacinda get to be leader in what I can only call “the Jacinda Ardern anti-coup plan”.

To give them their due they nearly pulled it off and possibly would have if for a few small “details” that they forgot to consider.

The first is that by being the current government in power they don’t get to harness any of the populist energy that is going around at this time (they lost that when Key jumped ship).

The second is despite Labour being the party that let the free-market beast that is neo-liberalism into NZ, National has been forever identified as the party that still supports its cruel tenants even while the its noxious after effects such as the housing hernia, failing education and health systems and dirty water sicken the nation further.

The third is that National is a third term government which has long since spent the mandate given to it in 2008 and was previously holding on only due to its claim to be a “steady pair of hands” when the opposition seemed about as capable of running the nation as the pissed inebriants of a hens night or stag party. With Jacinda and Labour on the rise that argument is swept away in the effervescing fervour that they are riding.

Even the usual election lolly scramble promises of money for this or money for that have only managed to slow the tide and for most people it’s either too little too late or an obvious election bribe with no reality behind it were National to get back into power.

Thus for Bill English he gets to be the man who led the party to electoral defeat twice and if this does not end his political career I don’t know what will.

If there is a saving grace for National it is that hopefully being out of government will allow many of the deadwood MPs that currently infect the party (such as Collins, Brownlee, Smith, Tolley, Bennet et al) to slither gracefully into the night and allow a new generation of younger, and less corrupted, MPs to take over and revitalise the party.

The origins of National come from 1935 and the failure of the Liberal and Reform parties (the forerunners of National), as the then government to manage the great depression and the nation (which also saw the election of the first Labour Government under Michael Joseph Savage) and it’s this fate which National either has to embrace, by reforming itself or face the same fate as those parties (National did not return to government until 1949).

The lesson here is obvious. National in opposition can take the time to tap into the mood of the nation, figure out a less toxic set of principles to guide their policy and rebuild the party brand after it was hollowed out by the skeezy antics of John Key and debased by the rest of its MPs in their never ending quest to hold power for its own sake rather than to serve the national interest.

I have never born any ill will towards the National party itself, only its MPs and brain trust and I remain a political pragmatist (rather than a tribalist) who votes where the best outcome for NZ (not myself) lies and who knows, if National can get rid of that lice ridden free-market security blanket that its forever clutching (while its sucks its political thumb) I might someday consider voting for it.

WINNER - LABOUR

So yes, Labour for the win, and I am not even a Labour supporter nor will I be voting for them this year BUT it’s impossible to deny the energy that Jacinda Ardern has generated as party leader and the effect that has had on party fortunes.

Fact: Labour still does not have a policy pot to piss in BUT Jacinda.

Fact: there are still deadwood MPs in the party which need to be ruthlessly pruned before the party can grow again BUT Jacinda!

Fact: Labour needs to live up the promise of change (ala the spirit of Norman Kirk and 1972) that is currently driving the mood of the electorate BUT Jacinda!!

Jacindamania might not be affecting everyone (as I write this a Nicky Wagner party van drives past my window) but after nine years of National the mood of the natives of NZ (ie that’s all Kiwis) is restive and you only have to look at the polling to see what’s coming.

Labour is not “trending up” when you look at the poll charts but shooting up like a bottle rocket. Sure there is a ceiling to that rapid climb but Labour is no longer cannibalizing vote share from the Greens but now it’s capturing it from NZ First and National (as per the latest polling numbers) which means that Labour has rebuilt its voter base and is now looking over the fence at Nationals (and NZ First’s) verdant pastures.

To be sure the insane popularity of Ardern and the party is being driven by the appetite for change that populism (and nine years of National) has created and thereby turned Labour from moribund political entity to dynamic avatar for political change and that if not willing (or able) to effect that change they will hit the post-election slump like all those other avatars which thought getting elected was all they had to do (Trump, Macron, Trudeau, May ect).

Even if the nightmare scenario occurs and National gets back in (either by itself or supported by Winston or the Greens) then it still wins in the same manner as Jeremy Corbyn did in the UK by retaining its avatar status while the Tory party (both UK and NZ) dissolves into a steaming miasma of low poll results, infighting and crisis mismanagement.

Then come the next election labour can swoop in and pick over the carcass of National (and sadly the nation) any time it wants because the mood in NZ after three more years of the Bill and Bennet show (reduced human right anyone?) will be just this side to the left of Smiths Dream.

Even if Labour 2017 only serves one term like Labour in 1972 (due to the death of Norman Kirk) there is still a lot of good things Labour can do in those three years (like Labour did between 1972 and 1975 to re-orientate NZ with the world, strengthen state housing and ACC).

And for a moment let’s just address the elephant in the room which is the popularity of Jacinda Ardern.

It’s not, as some have so bitterly described it, as “lipstick on a pig” or a temporary thing but like John Key (who acknowledged recently how popular she is) something which, in itself, might not supplement for bad policy (as Key’s did not for National) but it could carry the party through three terms as government which might be as far as the party is looking at this time.

Also Ardern’s popularity will not save her should Labour fail to follow through on what’s needed for NZ but that’s not on voters’ minds at this time.

Whats on their minds at this time is CHANGE, some change, any change. Something has to give and for that to happen all those hopes and dreams are being invested in Jacinda to make that change as the avatar for said change.

And that’s where the daffodils come in because after the long winter of discontent that has been the current National government, Jacinda (and by proxy Labour) are the daffodils of change poking through the cold soil and reaching up for the warm bright future above.

SUMMARY

I am willing to admit that I do not have a time machine (yet) nor is what I write 100% guaranteed but at this time I am 95% certain that this is the outcome as instead of my usual rigorous analysis I am going on gut instinct and wild inspiration, which at this time is seems to be the right way to deal with the stultifying deadlock that the capricious nature of Winston Peters and FukYoo Politix has inflicted on this election.

In a situation where no choice is clear it is better to make one’s own fate and cut through the Gordian knot that this election has become.

Do you think its wishful thinking on my part?

Let’s see come September the 24^th.

*-Now I just find it on top of the duvet, looking at me with eyes that say “one word: plastics”.