The accidental princess: exploring the rise, costs and consequences of Jacindamania

Mania, also known as manic syndrome, is a state of abnormally elevated arousal, affect, and energy level, or "a state of heightened overall activation with enhanced affective expression together with lability of affect." Although mania is often conceived as a "mirror image" to depression, the heightened mood can be either euphoric or irritable; indeed, as the mania intensifies, irritability can be more pronounced and result in violence, or anxiety. - Wikipedia

NOTE - Play THIS while reading.

Its seems appropriate (and ironic) that while the Prime Minister is being feted overseas the luster of Jacindamania is fading here in NZ.

While Jacinda is out strutting on the global stage and appearing on talk shows the Clare Curran/Derek Handley scandal has finally been linked back to Jacinda herself (with the release of Mr Handleys personal communications with her) and its shows that the PM has not really been forthcoming on her dealings with Mr Handley or explaining how Mr Handley beat out all other contestants for the job.

What it does shows is that behind that heavily manufactured image of a young, smiling, millennial mother the Prime Minister is just another scumbag politician who will do whatever it takes to protect and promote her own (and her friends) while doing little else as the scandals start to pile up and the real issues continue to burn the country down.

And this shows exactly how far we have come in the last year, as 12 months ago Jacinda was being feted in Aotearoa, appearing on the Beehive stage extolling the virtues of real change and doing things differently (with the 100 day plan) while today the she has told the public that "radical change takes time" and allowed almost every genuine change based initiative to be watered down or have its agenda hijacked by vested interests until the voting public has come to the bitter realization that despite all the talk of "change" little has actually changed and little will except for the glitzy policy cosmetics used to whore up minor policy tweaks so they appear better than they are.

But how did things change so drastically? How did the revolutionary fervor of the 2017 election, with its message of transformation away from the Neo Liberal nightmare get deflected into this endless stupor of denied expectations and ministerial and managerial incompetence?

Neon lights, Nobel Prize

A good starting point for that question is the slick presentation by Jacinda and Winston recently to reassure the public that the revolution was still on track.

The contents of said presentation, done hurriedly to assure the public that a) Winston was not really running the show; b) that Jacinda was an effective leader and c) that this government (Labour led or Coalition notwithstanding) actually had an agenda and were sticking to it, were 12 priorities for moving the country forward which was  referred to by the Jacinda as “Our Plan”.

Our Plan? Lets look at "Our"plan shall we.

• Grow and share New Zealand's prosperity more fairly
• Support thriving, sustainable regions
• Govern responsibly
• Transition to a clean, green carbon-neutral New Zealand
• Ensure everyone who is able to is earning, learning, caring or volunteering
• Support healthier, safer and more connected communities
• Ensure everyone has a warm, dry home
• Make New Zealand the best place in the world to be a child
• Deliver open, transformative and compassionate government
• Build closer partnerships with Māori
• Value who we are as a country
• Create an international reputation we can be proud of

Stop and think about the above list for a moment, and try to imagine who, or what, was in charge when the name “Our Plan” was decided upon because the priorities themselves are a grab bag of feel good slogans and mindlessly obtuse platitudes on a list that looks exactly like it was ripped right from the white board in what could only have been an extremely panicky brainstorming session in the wake of the the ongoing bad press the government has been getting.

Now compare that list of lite weight political soundbites with the much more meaty fare on offer in the original coalition agreement from October last year which included clear directions on housing (establish a Housing Commission), law and order (1800 new police officers, increased funding and a Criminal Cases Review Commission), the environment (moving to being emissions free, a climate commission and alternatives to 1080), immigration (cutting down on low skill workers and migrant exploitation) and even smaller things like a commitment to build a Maori Battalion museum and a free trade agreement with Russia.

One of those lists shows a sense of direction and plans on how to get there while the other reeks of having been desperately pulled out of ones sweaty arsehole in the wake of bad press. Which one do you think is which?

I mean does the government need one of its "priorities" to be “govern responsibly”, have such blindly self-obvious things such as “grow and share [New Zealand’s] prosperity more fairly” or include such a meaningless statement such as “value who we are as a country”? None of the above have any weight or even any semblance of a practical policy behind them. They are nothing more than hot air on par with the previous national government saying they will make NZ pest free by 2040, but now writ large and wholesale rather than just one single area.

And the rest don't help either as things like "Create an international reputation we can be proud of" seems to indicate that we currently don't have a reputation we can be proud of while "Ensure everyone who is able to is earning, learning, caring or volunteering" is so vague and nebulous that its clear that this is a list by committee of spineless and brainless jellyfish who somehow found themselves in charge of ruining a country.

All of these 12 points are just nothing but self sanctified farts being sniffed wholesale by people so smug with themselves but who have clearly no idea of what they are doing and when faced with a crisis or an actual issue which needs addressing have instead fallen back on the comfortable bureaucratic illusion of action by group think and list making which is more commonly known as the disease called Injelititis or Palsied Paralysis.

I've been everything you want to be

Today we have a government which cant agree on its direction, cant govern its members and is now desperately careening from one crisis to another in a sweaty fever dream where its become abundantly clear the disparate elements of this coalition government are held together by one single solitary thing: Jacinda Arden, or more correctly Jacindamania.

Twist it round and look it from any angel you like, struggle with it and agonize about it or even silently squirm in sweaty denial BUT in the end you will have to accept that the reason why we currently have the the highly suspect government we have is because of the sudden, and mostly unexpected rise of Jacinda Ardern to the leadership of Labour just two months for the 2017 election.

Yes, its painfully true and also desperately worrying but dont say its not so because if you think its anything else that got us where we are then you are a god damned liar; and a fool to boot!

Think about it. 80 days before the election Labour was polling a dismal 24% on a long running downwards curve and had Andrew Little as its gormless leader, a party which was composed of dull washed up MPs that no one wanted to vote for, a policy platform that was was dead on arrival and the political appeal of a road kill possum (leaking from all orifices) being thrown onto your kitchen table during a quiet Sunday breakfast.

Then suddenly, Little quit, Jacinda Ardern became queen and the rocket took off. Two months later Labour had got 37% in the polls and there was a tangible sense that they would be the next government, once the paperwork was sorted out.

And the only thing that changed between Little stepping down and the eventual coalition agreement with NZ First, three months later, was Jacinda Ardern. She alone was responsible for the 14% points that Labour rose in the final two months AND nothing else.

Go look at the latest Colmar Brunton polling and skip to page 7, where it shows the party vote over the last decade. See that red line (denoting Labour [sic]) which continually struggles, like a drowning person, to desperately stay above 30% polling for most of the last 10 years. Then see how it suddenly shoots up to the high 30s/low 40s in mid to late 2017, thats Jacindamania!

Jacindamania sucked back Labours wayward voters from the Greens and dragged down the party vote of every other political party in that election (go check the numbers of you don't believe me) while also raising the overall percentage of people who voted, after two decades of decline. It killed wholesale both the Maori and United Future parties and swept their MPs off the political chess board in such a dramatic and sudden fashion that NZ politics, for the first time since MMP began, had a major reduction in the number of political parties in parliament.

Also, sitting inside Jacindamania, and fueling its monstrous rise, are the massive expectations by the general public for change, real change, away from the imbalanced tenets of neo-liberalism and rapacious capitalism and towards a freer, fairer place to live. This is the political equivalent of the high octane fuel that sends rockets into orbit, very powerful but also extremely unstable.

So, call it a paradigm shift, a power shift or a re-alignment with the zeitgeist but don't deny that had Andrew Little led Labour until polling day the outcome would have been a fourth term National government, and Bill English as PM rather than the coalition government we have today and Jacinda Ardern as PM, thats the power of Jacindamania.

When a mirror speaks the reflection lies

And an explanation for the phenomena of Jacindamania lies in an area of Political Science that is rarely explored but which can exert a tremendous influence over peoples, nations and states: The Cult of Personality.

Put simply this phenomena creates a heroic image for a particular (political, religious or otherwise) leader which, regardless of reality, subsumes the actual leader themselves in a popular image of that individual that exaggerates (and eventually warps) their characteristics and abilities to suit a particular narrative . The result is that the public (or a section of it) see only the manufactured image and worship it accordingly and will also defend it from all criticism until the cult itself is extinguished or dies.

NZ has its own particular form of the cult which has manifested itself in the Svengali magnetism of Jokey John key; the paternal strong woman of Helen Clark; the noble but all too human David Lange and the benevolent dictatorship of Robert Muldoon. In short NZ has a thing for strong leaders who take stands on issues and can keep their minions in line.

And all are, despite their faults and failings, generally considered good leaders. Yes some tripped up at the end but its the consistency of their long run as leader that is important because the NZ public knows what it wants and any person who has the stones to swing is ensured an extended stay in the top job while any candidate that does not fit the profile is tainted from day one and will be hounded until they fall. Call it political reverse tall poppy syndrome.

However this is the problem with Jacindamania as unlike the previously mentioned PMs and their respective positions in the NZ political pantheon, Jacinda Ardern stands apart as in her case the cult came first and not after her time as PM.

But I can see your not convinced so lets have a look at the last two examples of the cult prior to Jacinda: John Key and Helen Clark. Whether you liked them or not few people could argue credibly that they were not both popular and effective leaders as each led their respective governments for three terms and with nary a challenger to their power or issue which derailed their political agendas.

Both Clark and Key had strong leadership backgrounds before coming into the top job; with Clarke having served in the Fourth Labour government as a minister across multiple portfolios and having a long time in politics (both on the opposition benches and in Young Labour) while Key made it to the top in the cut throat world of international merchant banking where he earned the nickname the "smiling assassin" for his ability to get things done without ruffling feathers and earned a fortune in the process.

Both Key and Clark ran their governments with a tight hand and both (and this is a key point) were quick to yank offending ministers and MPs back into line or, when need be, remove, demote or just outright kick their asses to the curb with no questions asked. And from such actions it was abundantly clear that both of these two PM understood Machiavelli's dictum about the leader needing to have both a public and private face and how the public persona of the good leader need not be in alignment with the need to get things done (sometimes to protect the public image) in private.

Both of these two long serving Prime Ministers were able to get much of their parties respective political agendas through select committee and parliament which is a feat in and of itself and one which shows that without an effective leader at the helm a party, and its agenda, are doomed from the start as both external pressures and internal rivalries will detect any weakness and tear it apart.

Like them or hate them both of these two PMs were  skilled political operators who not only got the job done but did so with generally high popularity polling. And while Clark worked to bring the unwieldy elements of NZ First, United Future and the Alliance (with Jim Anderton as deputy PM in the first term) into a working government (showing that the political manage a trios of NZ First/Labour/Greens is not so unique or unusual as we think) Key, despite his relative political experience, was able to shackle The Maori Party, ACT and United Future to the National party wagon with the political equivalent of beads and blankets and ensure three terms of a National Government despite an endless cascade of scandals and MP misbehavior on almost his personal charms alone.

Thus both Helen Clark and John Key served their time with a formidable personality cult grown about them and even after leaving office both have retained a degree of their old magical persona in much the same way as some actors retain status on the basis of a classic role they played.

I'm the smiling face on your TV

Thus we come to Jacindamania and its clear that Ardern is neither in the mold of Clark or Key and that there is something weirdly askew about this iteration of the PM personality cult which indicates that Ardern is not the political warlord that Key and Clark were.

And I will be the first to admit its hard to put a finger on the queer dissonance that surround Jacinda Ardern as PM, given the high levels of political static that Jacindamania has created, but after some time and thought I think I know why Ardern is not going to be a three term political god like Clark or Key and will likely be more along the lines of a one term wonder like Norm Kirk (with his tranformative take on NZ government but without his heart attack) or a two term scarred idealist like David Lange (who made it into a second term on the back of things like Nuclear free NZ but was then roasted alive by the public and his own party as Rogernomics destroyed NZ).

First up, Ardern is not an electorate or campaign politician like all of the above. She failed to win back the long term Labour stronghold of Auckland Central from Nikki Kaye in two elections (2011 and 2014) and was saved only by the party list from political oblivion (making her a distinct rarity in NZ political leaders but possibly a sign of the future). This is important because it shows that her personal image and mana is not road or battle tested and therefore her ability to be graceful under fire is suspect.

Next, her experience prior to NZ politics was working for Tony Blair right at the time when he was bending over backwards for George Bush Juniors invasion of Iraq does her no favors and while she managed to win Mt Albert in both the by and general election (both in 2017) a shaved monkey in a red cap and t-shirt could have held this rather red of seats so thats not saying anything about her political skills either.

Next up is that Ardern has had no previous experience as a Minister (like Clark) or a high level executive (like Key) and has spent most of her nine years in parliament as a mute backbencher or shadow minister in some marginal capacity until early 2017 when she became deputy leader for Andrew Little after long serving Labour battler Annette King was pushed aside as part of the ABL (Anyone But Little) faction of the party. So again we have someone in the top job who had almost no prior experience in any role where managing a team of people was a required skill, let alone running the country.

And its this curious lack of skill, experience or ability for the PM role which shows up Jacindamania as the vaporous apparition that it is and Ardern herself as less some political Boudica (like Clark) or Svengalli (like Key) and more like a heavily manufactured, flash in the pan, sensation like Britney Spears and shows the incredible gap between the rather undefined image that Jacindamania presents of Ardern herself (one where the public got excited about her) and the rather stark reality of a late 30s millennial suddenly becoming the leader of a country with no prior experience or skill for such work.

Its the political equivalent of the acne ridden teenage fry-cook at Wendy's being suddenly, and inexplicably, being promoted to national manager of the company and expected to whip up a plan to boost sales in one week.

But if you want to know what really drives Jacindamania it is not in Jacinda Ardern herself that we must look but rather into the climate and tenor of the times in which she arose to understand why the fry cook is now running the entire company.

I know your anger, I know your dreams

Think back to late 2015 and early 2016. National was well into its third term, Key was finally starting to slump in the popularity polling from his stratospheric highs in the first term (near 60%) and the dreaded (and inevitable) third-term-itis has set in as National was staggering from one scandal to another, the Housing Hernia was coming to a boil and all other other issues (like immigration, water etc) were creating the doom laden atmosphere which prompted me to start blogging.

The party polling was consistently stable but it was clear that it was Key, and his massive popularity, which was keeping National going rather than anything else and its draining effects on Key were abundantly clear when he unexpectedly quit politics in late 2016 citing burnout of all things. I suppose even an obviously evil man such as key can have his spirit drained by being chained to a broken down wagon of mongoloid retards such as most National MPs are.

In short the mood in the nation was one of change that could be summed up as ABN or Anyone But National.

However change in NZ politics and governments works best with a dynamic leader to front the prospective change agent and you only have to look at the rise of Helen Clarke or Winston Peters in the wake of the previous National government (1990 to 1999) to see what created and drove their rises as popular political figures and this is the similar dynamic which has driven Jacindamania but with one important difference.

While both Clark and Peters were popular figures in their times no one ever spoke of Helenmania or Winstonmania which is a clear indication that their popularity was rooted more in the person themselves and not in the aura surrounding them (hence the term mania) and both, in their own ways, have demonstrated their longevity and skills countless times over the years while Ardern is struggling after just 12 months into the job.

Thus Winstion with his rebel roots and Clark with her solid record and iron hand were clear leadership contenders before they rose to prominence while in mid 2016 no one in the right mind would have predicted that Jacinda Ardern would be sucked into office in late 2017 via the political equivalent of Beatlemania.

Also worth noting is that in the age of populism and FukYoo politix, post truth and the #Metoo movement the rise of feelgood populists like Emanuel Macron, Justin Trudeau and Barrack Obama (a phenomena I refer to "soft-core politicians") concurrent to the rise of hard line populists (referred to as the "Neo-strongmen" like Trump, Erdogan, Duerte, Xhi and various figures in Europe) Jacinda as PM is an indication that NZ is not immune to this trend.

I sell the things you need to be

So lets recap: Labour in a political slump, deadbeat leader and party while the mood of the nation was for political change BUT not if Andrew Little and Labour were going to be the government (hence the 24% polling).

Then a political pawn (Jacinda Ardern) somehow makes it across the board to become a queen and the game changes completely.

The question then becomes who moved that pawn or who moved the other pieces out of the way so Ardern could make it to the final rank?

The answer to this question is also the answer to those who created, nurtured and have profited most of Jacindamania (in the classic example of Cui bono?) and that is the members of the ABL faction that had always opposed the imposition of Andrew Little on the party by its union component and who were more than happy to let him crash and burn in the 2017 general election if they could not have one of their own in charge.

Think about it, Ardern gets gifted the ultra safe seat of Mt Albert seat after failing to win back Labour stronghold, Auckland Central, on two consecutive occasions. Shortly after she just happened to become Little's deputy (beating out the expected and much more experienced choice) and starts to suck up what little media oxygen he had left so that he drags the party into the political abyss.

But is Ardern part of this plan or just a useful patsy in this scenario? 

The answer is Ardern is both conspirator and pasty as she herself has carefully nurtured her own image but at the end of the day she has been the sole vehicle that Labour could use to get back into power and as such her rise smacks of carefully contrived media hype to tap into the desperate need of those left leaning voters who were pining for the days of Auntie Helen and could not stomach another three years of National and Bill English.

Bottom line is that the rather undefined image of Jacinda Ardern as something special is what got Labour back into office but as the pressures mounts the image has faded away to reveal a rather inexperienced individual who has about as much control over her party as any other backbench MP that who was suddenly thrust into the spotlight on account of their having some quirk of character which temporarily snagged the public's interest.

I exploit you, still you love me

We now have roughly two years before the next general election and in those 24 months expect to see more and more of the gloss wear off Jacindamania and more and more pressure be brought to bear on Ardern herself because there is no one else in Labour or this government which can or is doing any of the heavy lifting.

So, expect her to fumble before the cameras as sooner or later she will get caught in a lie and nothing in her previous experiences indicate that she has the skills to talk her way out of it. Spin doctors are not expected to be the subject of their own spin; they are backroom people and rarely able to survive the harsh glare of public scrutiny and a government that promises everything to everyone delivers nothing.

And as the lies pile up, as the agenda is watered down into an unrecognizable mush (now almost there given the porridge that the recent 12 points is), as one MP or another gets caught in a scandal or when National get their game together (because another thing enabling Jacindamania is the fact that ABN still exists and while Simon Bridges has tried mightily its clear that John Key he aint) the next two years till polling day will descend into a personal hell for Jacinda Ardern as she is forced to carry more and more of the reality that Jacindamania has previously been obscuring from the public.

To be fair both Key and Clark stumbled with their image in time as well but for both of them it was well into their third term and after many slings and arrows had been fired their way before they were brought down and that was because both had their own particular skills and experiences to be more than just a selfie photo with some adoring admirers and genuinely transcended their image to resonate in that particular way that most Kiwis can relate to. Ardern does not do that.

For all her popularity Ardern is not relateable or self depreciating (like Key) or as the benevolent matriarch (like Clark) and not having much pull in an actual electorate is part of her failure as well because Ardern has clearly not worked on her public image before becoming PM, while Clark and Key most certainly had*.

But in the end the immense expectations which have fueled the rise of Jacindamania (that rocket fuel from before) will also be its downfall as when they are not met the rocket will run out of momentum, plunge back to earth and explode in a fireball. 

And the public backlash itself will become its own revolution (or even a counter revolution to propel National back into power) as the electorate voices its unhappiness with how things are going. 

Already its started with a business community which is clearly not down with giving up its easy living and the increasingly displaced lower and middle classes Jacinda (read teachers and nurses) who have ground Jacindamania into paste between them with only a few desperate acolytes left to protect and shepherd its battered image into September 2020.

The key indicators to watch for will be when her personal polling starts to slip and the fragile tethers that bind the coalition (ie the ABN movement) loosen enough to allow ideas into the heads of NZ First and the Greens that maybe, just maybe, a deal with National can be done (both parties could be pried away from the coalition if its was clear that Jacindamania was going down for the count). 

Also worth noting is that Jacindamania is only a one time thing, you cant capture the magic a second time around unless your candidate has some actual charisma or mana to tap into so election 2020 will see Labour on the hustings without the superstar draw of the 2017 election.

You gave me power in your Gods name

But if you want some sort of statistical entree for this soon to be circus of the damned then check out the oft neglected "don't know/refused" figures from the Colmar Brunton report and dig what they are saying because as of September 2017 the don't knows were at a very low 7% (after their pre election 20%), reflecting the gap voters who often wait to see which way the wind blows before swinging in behind the general electoral mood. 

But as of August 2018 dont knows had almost doubled to 12% and when you add in the refused at 4% you get a rather leery 16% of punters who were down with Jacinda 12 months ago but have since become disillusioned and once again put back out to sea.

Of course you could argue that there is nothing direct to correlate this with Jacindamania and on the surface your right but given that pre election they were at 20%, immediately post election they were at 7% and now are climbing back up I think its pretty clear that these are the first refugees from jacindamania, but not the last.

In my pissed away revolution post a few months back I noted that the hideous emasculation that made Labour into the spineless political jellyfish it is today is also the same factor that helped create the rise of Jacindamania.

Helen Clark gutted any and all rivals for her position with such force and ruled Labour with such control that all the virile specimens were killed or driven out of the herd while leaving behind only the weak and sick. But even among the weak and sick one case rise to dominate, in fact its a lot easier when the rest are poxy mongrels and you have just a hint of pure-breed about you.

The result is the kind of politician that is perfect for a party of "everyone gets a trophy" MPs and even more perfect as the leader; unfortunately reality, and especially political reality does not play that game and there is no second place for polished turds when its the top job up for grabs, its strictly zero sum.

Jacinda Ardern was swept into office by the political equivalent of a children's fad for a particular toy or pop star and such things are never meant to last. The consequence is that baring the rise of any other left leaning sensation the 2020 election may end up being fought exclusively on issues as there is no appeal in watching Ardern and Bridges face off for the crown when both are responsible for fiddling while Aotearoa burns.



*-To be fully fair I am willing to acknowledge that it may be I who am out of touch with political reality and the future is just more of the same but if that's so then god helps us !!!!

NOTE- all section titles are lyrics taken from "Cult of Personality" by the most excellent band Living Colour