I'm just going to leave these here

They say it cant happen here!

If you want some great examples of why bloggers are often doing a better job than the media these days you would be hard pressed to go past the following posts from the left and right of the political spectrum around National having Jamie-Lee Ross sanctioned (read forceably incarcerated) for "mental health issues" as a means to keep him from dropping any further dirt on National.

And the mainstream NZ media has been notably absent in this area because, as I have said before, they are far to close/embedded to those they cover to keep on reporting and as such they remain compromised and entirely suspect in Nationals bad behavior.

First we have Cameron Slater  of Whale Oil (yes that Cameron Slater of that Whale Oil)(via the Daily Blog) pointing out that it was National that got Ross locked away by the cops out of fear of Ross saying anything further, or worse contradicting Nationals set narrative.

Meanwhile Left-wing blogger Chris Trotter adds his own take on things from his own blog (Bowalley Road) and this is again well worth the read.

And there is so much in both of those posts that I will say no more but encourage readers to put any political prejudices they may have aside and go read them and see for yourself.

What I will add is that I was aware of some of these details through my own source in National but did not feel I could outright say what I had been told given the inability to verify it but that is where my allusion/comment to National assembling a "political hit team" in my recent post came from as Ross was high enough and deep enough into Nationals power structure to have more than enough dirt to team wipe National in its entirety and my source indicated as such.

And as this story is now well beyond Ross and his behavior things are verging on terminal scandal as Bridges has been caught red handed whoring the party for money and the only way out is to silence Ross from making any further revelations so Bridges and Co will be using any and all tricks to get Ross to shut his mouth as there are political reputations and careers at stake here and plenty of vested interests who would go down as well if National gets exposed as little more than a front for the PRC.

And if this is all somewhat shades of Karen Silkwood or that poor bugger who's name I can recall but who got killed in mysterious circumstances for having data disks from the Bank of New Zealand which suggested it was up to no good, then so be it because it does happen here!

Its probably time we started to ask some serious questions about National and its Chinese "friends".

Sex, lies and Judith Collins

Listen to this while reading

Some people may have been shocked at the dirty laundry put on display last week when Jamie-Lee Ross and Simon Bridges went head to head in the public sandpit like two junkies high on cat pee but if you have spent any time in Wellington such stories are just the tip of the iceberg.

Take for instance the following:

·         A prominent minister in the last National Government was known to have such an insatiable lust for hiring pretty blonde women to work in his office that staff started to screen applicants based on hair colour

·         The speakers apartment, on the top of Parliament, has been the scene of several drug fuelled orgies involving MPs, sex workers and parliamentary staff

·         There are at least three brothels operating within 5 minutes’ walk of the Beehive; one set in a high class apartment building on the Terrace, another in an oddly decorated house slightly further up the terrace and one just across the road from Parliament: all have MPs as clients

·         Political lobbyists with access to parliament have provided drugs and sexual services

to MPs as part of their job

·         A highly paid Wellington courtesan operates under the cover of being a “communications consultant” to MPs and has her expensive Agent Provocateur lingerie insured as a “business expense”

·         Parliamentary services staff in the mid-2000s noted the operation of an individual they nicknamed “the groupie” whose mission it seemed to be to sleep with every male MP in parliament

·         An acquaintance of mine who has worked in the offices of five MPs, from various parties, over the years noted that all of them had affairs with their staff, all were married at the time and the offenders were both male and female MPs

·         The wives of at least two current MPs met their mates after working in their offices and having workplace affairs with them

Seven of the above are confirmed true and one remains suspected but unproven, you guess which one.

The point of the above is not to provide salacious titbits but to show that the kind of dirty laundry exposed by the Simon Bridges/Jamie-Lee Ross spat is not anything new if you work on or near the beltway in Wellington. Such things are, in fact, depressingly mundane.

And while the public may enjoy seeing MPs going at each other the reality is that it drags politics in general further down the slippery slope it has gone in the last decade (as Tracy Watkins has recently noted in Stuff).

It also doesn’t help that a recent round of research has shown that MPs are increasingly divorced from the general public they seek to represent (as well as reality) and most current MPs are now the kind of career politician that have no real life experience or basis in reality to lead a country or represent their electorate (given that the report notes distinct lack of MPs with any farming or trade background).

But Watkins is being deliberately naive if she thinks that this recent round of childlike squabbling is going to bring about a happier healthier parliament or more moral MPs (come on Tracy, at least try and be realistic on this one) by the sudden realization that someone has gone too far.

Still, parliament remains operational by recently having the third reading of the highly controversial and ultimately dangerous CPTTP trade deal (boo, hiss!) while also seeing a bill that would empower the Commerce Commission to look at anti-competitive behavior, and specifically the fuel market, also pass its third reading (Yaaay!) and thus showing that despite all the sexual shenanigans things can and do get done there.

Unfortunately all of this is being undermined by parties selling out democracy, wholesale, just so someone can buy their way into parliament (as National has recently been exposed doing) and no bill passing its third reading is going to offset that.

Nor is having people like National Party president Peter Goodfellow or Deputy Leader Paula Bennett stirring the pot or obviously playing the game for their own ends, by keeping Simon in the dark about Ross’s bad behaviour going to do National any favours by leaving Bridges looking naked and vulnerable as leader.

Thus we get to the most recent political poll results, done in the wake of Nationals spectacular meltdown, and what do you know, National down, Labour up, Greens up and Judith Collins (up several points to 5% as preferred PM) breathing down the neck of Simon Bridges (down 3 points to 7% as preferred PM) like the villain in a slasher movie.

Of course the reality is that with Jacinda Ardern now sitting on 42% as preferred PM it makes not a whit if its Judith or Simon who polls higher at this point as all Nationals internal ruckus has done is expose further the rift in National between the various party factions and your seven or five percent won’t be making the nut on election night against Labours 45% and Jacinda’s 42%.

And the even grimmer reality is with the Greens up 1 to 7% Labour and the Greens can govern alone as Winston and NZ First went nowhere at 5%. This means that the direct political outcome of all of Nationals infighting was to boost Labour, Jacinda and the Greens while weaken National and Bridges and set Judith’s heart all aflutter.

Unfortunately for Judith “I stab from the front” Collins, National does not appear suicidal enough yet to let her be leader which is a good thing because polling or otherwise National are now teetering on the brink of the political abyss that Labour fell into, with it nine cruddy years in opposition and endless leader swaps, which is a good thing because letting Judith run the show would bring the party to a place which it does not want to go.

Yes, the Judith Collins, as the Donald Trump of NZ politics scenario has been discussed before but not only is the NZ political landscape not polarized enough to facilitate such antics but Collins is such a tainted figure that it would be easier to leave Simon in charge and see what rocks he can steer the ship onto rather than allow Collins to rally the atavistic hordes to her dubious crusade.

Hunter S Thompson once said Richard Nixon represented the dark side of US politics and the same could be said for Judith Collins and politics in NZ. Just as Nixon did everything to advance his own political goals at the expense of all others so to would Collins do anything to get her backside on the throne, and NZ would be poorer for it if she did.

However, never say never as given how National has handled this crisis Collins might somehow exploit the chaos to grab the top job as Leader but she would never make it to PM and once that door is opened it cannot be closed and National would soon be begging John (or even Max) Key to come back and lead them rather than sink further into the murk that Labour has only recently climbed out of because if Collins for Leader, why not Brownlee, Bennett or (shudder...) Nick Smith.*

And there is even the rumor doing the rounds that Jamie-Lee Ross’s actions and later meltdown were subtly engineered by Collins (who Ross was a previous supporter of) so that the ultimate result would be to weaken Bridges and boost her own profile (and remove potential contender Ross) all in one foul swoop.

Given how fractious National has become and with Bridges smack-down on certain MPs its clear that such a scenario could be used for personal advantage but it remains just a theory and while the path to  the top job always has a few bodies to step over it would not be sound to engineer some sort of fratricidal bloodbath just to be queen. Or would it?

I don’t know where this will end but it’s safe to say that, after a brief hiatus in the wake of the 2017 general election, FukYoo Politix is back with a vengeance.

Is it any wonder that politicians are viewed in the same vein as child sex predators and lawyers?

And its a mood noted elsewhere so with that in mind rather than burn the Beehive to the ground and behead all sitting MPs, their staff and pets, here are my suggestions to a better Parliament, more open political parties, cleaner MPs and a healthier democracy:

• Term limits of being an MP (say four terms/12 years)
• No political donations to parties over 10K and all donations over $1000 must be declared in full
• Lobbyists banned from parliament and not allowed select or individual access to MPs or senior govt staff
• Pay of MPs cut to under 100K
• All MPs must have at least 15 years experience in non political/government jobs or roles related to their portfolio (ie must have been a farmer to be minister in any farming related role in government)
• Repeal the Waka jumping law

None of the above are particularly extreme and yet they would be a lot easier to deal with for MPs and parliament than allowing the ugly, angry and sometimes violent specter of populism/FukYoo politix to predominate and ultimately do the same thing.

Reader can suggest their own in the comments.



*-Amy Adams omitted because she is the obvious choice to succeed Bridges and go against Jacinda but I suspect that National male egos may not be ready for that yet (much as Labour was not able to stomach such a thought until they had scrapped the bottom of the barrel so many time that Andrew Little was leader before things got so desperate that Jacindamania happened. Also Adams may be playing the long game and lettering Judith run herself out of contention by tilting now, rather than when its less messy. Its what I would do.

Dead Party Walking

Jamie-Lee Ross’s press conference and release of a recording of him and Simon Bridges discussing all sorts of murky activities has been the political equivalent of a suicide bombing, detonated for maximum effect, in the middle of parliament.

Also, as Ross potentially has more dirt to dish (including other secret recordings), this is not over by a long shot.

The tape itself is enough to sink any political career, let alone a mediocre one like Bridges with its discussion of how to hide donations, from wealthy Chinese, from the rest of the party and the public, the effective sale of membership in National to foreign interests (not that this was anything new for National), the culling of serving party members and sitting MPs to accommodate said foreign buy ins and the kind of blue blooded arrogance that has become Nationals trademark over the years.

Bridges of course counter attacked this morning (claiming X, Y and Z) but it’s too late, far too late, and well beyond the scale of any possible repair that some half-baked apology is going to fix.

So without getting into all the details, Jamie-Lee Ross has crippled the National Party by not only completely exposing its deep internal divisions but also by conclusively displaying that National is as mercenary as they come, willing to whore itself out to all and sundry without any thought of anything (or anyone) but the dollar.

Worse still, is that Ross is not finished and there is likely more damage to come, more secrets and more internal ruckus as those MPs who have suddenly discovered that they are expendable, if some Chinese donor has enough cash, will not take this lying down and surely revolt.

However the absolute summit of this horribly spectacular turd mountain is that National is now effectively dead, both politically and socially. They may not know it yet but that’s it for Bridges and National as even without Ross  adding any new dirt added to the pile there is enough here to keep Nicky Hagar in business for years!

A week ago there could still be some genuine speculation about who would be government in the next election (2020) but now that door has slammed shut with a brutal finality as now its Jacinda and Winston for the win, without even trying, and even with all the issues that have built up under their current leadership.

Now we are back to that point I blogged about in late 2016 when the situation in National after John Key left was also bleak with national effectively headless and the rats either jumping ship or being pushed off (often by bigger fatter rats).

Then there is the Botany Bay by-election to consider and how this will play out, in public, with Ross clearly willing to stop at nothing and dish all the details in what could only be categorized as Hell has no fury as a MP scorned.

In fact, if Ross plays this right, and secures the seat then he has the makings of being able to start his own party, ala Winston Peters, as not only is he willing to go head to head in a no holds barred gladiatorial showdown with Bridges but he also has a potential stable of dissident MPs to pull to his side from all of those “f**king useless” MPs that bridges was willing to sell down the river for Chinese funding, to build a party from.

Some National voters will probably sit still for this, because even at its nadir Labour still had a core of 24% who qualified as true believers, but a lot will not. Some will cut loose and look to parties like TOP for their rational policy fix, while other more conservative types will start to agitate for some vehicle to replace ACT. Others may even embrace the dark side and consider voting for NZ First or (shock horror) Labour.

And its not surprising that behind all of this are the same faces that we always fear and loath with Jerry Brownlee being the catalyst for all this when he demanded, what had supposedly been promised to Ross, and got it because “he will sit on the back benches and throw rocks” (according to Simon) and Paula Bennett acting as bully boy for Bridges and setting Ross up for his final suicide dive.

So yes, Bridges avoided having Brownlee “throwing rocks” but instead got Ross lobbing, what one acquaintance of mine described as, “thermonuclear hand grenade” into the core of the party and taking out everybody.

Seems the Gang of Four (Bennett, Brownlee, Smith and Collins) remains as toxic as ever and in allowing their toxicity to predominate at the highest levels in National, Simon Bridges has allowed the cancer to spread and grow to such a volume that it’s exploded forth with a wave of puss and foul ichor.

I contacted my national party contact (T) yesterday to find out what had gone on but got a rather short “not today mate, give me a week” in reply so when I get the inside scoop from him I will post it here but even so there is so little left that’s not been revealed or exposed as to be an open secret that I don't expect to be too surprised at what he reveals.

I have side this before and I am saying this again, that National had been on life support in the early 2000s after English and Brash had bent the party over and spread itself wide (see Nicky Hagar’s The Hollow Men) and it was only the miracle intervention of John Key (and the public reaction to an increasingly matriarchal Auntie Helen) which saved them from political oblivion then as to all intents and purposes they were politically bankrupt.

Today, without the necromancer magic of Key to sustain them, National is completely and utterly politically bankrupt and Simon Bridges has allowed Jamie-Lee Ross to destroy the brand in the most fatal fashion.

No-one wants to be identified with quislings willing to sell out ones country (and as the international mood swings against kissing Chinese backside National and their Chinese courtesans are on the wrong side of the debate) nor publicly link themselves with idiots, fools and incompetents. People are going to walk, people are going to talk and Bridges has not only let the narrative slip out of his hands he has completely and irrevocably destroyed both the internal and external fixtures of National.

So from now until it dies, National is a dead party walking, it will shamble forward as some sort of political zombie, maybe even Judith Collins will get to be leader, but only the most hard-core (or apathetic) National supporter will be willing to stand up and remain loyal.

This is why National cant have nice things: Simon Bridges, Jamie- Lee Ross and knowing when to keep your mouth closed

You had just one job Simon! One job!

It’s clear from recent media panic (see here, here, here and here) that there are a lot of questions are still to be answered in the strange and twisted saga that I am dubbing the Simon Bridges travel expenses leaker scandal investigation dumpster fire train wreck thingy.

Some of these important questions include asking if Jamie-Lee Ross really is the leaker (because the report, written by Bridges legal counsel, is far from conclusive and takes great pains to say so), if he did leak why did he do it, also does he really have a secret recording of Simon Bridges talking about fiddling the books on donations to National, but if it was not Lee-Ross then who, and just how far will this thing actually go?

But the first question of questions that really needs to be asked at this point is: holly f**k what the hell is that thing standing next to Simon Bridges, and where's Paula Bennett?

What in Kraffs divine name is that heavily spray tanned creature, with the super-gelled hair, glowering beside Simon as if trying to kill the assembled media with its withering death stare?

Is a it a web toed priestess of Dagon the fish god or has Simon gotten some sort of hyper intense Jersey Shore type body guard? I mean the way whatever it is is dressed it’s clear that inside that tightly controlled hair, ear ring and tasteless patterned shirt combination is something, seething in rage juices, trying to get out and run amok in the room, tearing out reporters throats, knocking over microphones and bathe in the blood of its hated enemies.

However the reality at this point is that it wont matter one bit who, or what, is escorting Simon to his press conferences these days because I think such a dangerously unscripted occasion like a press conference is not the place for Bridges to opening his mouth or exercising his thought glands in any way shape or form.

Lets take it from the top. 

First there is the minor matter of Bridges travel expenses being leaked to the media. Not the worst thing to happen and less the occasion to say anything in particular than just trying to spin it up as Bridges doing his job by getting out among the people. Sure it cost $81,000 but thats what ministerial limos are for and had Bridges said he would hire a mini-van for him and his team next time no one would have said anything further and that would have been that.

But noooo; Simon has to call a press conference then go in and shoot his mouth off, demand an investigation, drag the speaker in and set in motion this whole sad carnival of mayhem and mishaps.

Then when someone (possibly the actual leaker) texts the Police and pleads temporary insanity or being off their meds, the speaker backs away, calls off the parliamentary hounds and gives Bridges the perfect opportunity to deal with this quietly in house, away from scrutiny and with no further fuss or mess.

But noooooooooo; Bridges has to call another press conference and unbelievably double down on the need to find the leaker and commissions a private investigation into the matter, using his lawyer of all people, to dig deeper into the woodpile and see what they would uncover.

And at this point any sane person in the leaders seat would start to realize how close to the edge this is getting, there were warning signs in the media and elsewhere that texts to the Police citing mental health concerns from the so called leaker is a perfect time to just dial it down a bit and get the focus back on the coalition government, things like rising gas prices or whats happening on the Batchelor.

But nooooooooooooooooooooo; Simon then calls another press conference to announce that Jamie-Lee Ross is going on medical leave and instead of stopping at about the 15 second mark when he has said what was needed to be said he inexplicably and unbelievably lurched onwards by saying that this had nothing to do with the search for the leaker and this whole things was just a coincidence.

I watched the video of that press conference and I had my head in my hands by the end of it because Bridges first statement need not have been followed by the second and the moment he said it I knew this was not going to end well. Why would you tag on that supposedly unrelated second comment in a press conference discussing the first? I mean what was Simon thinking?

Yet even at this point there was still time to pull back, to steer the whole flaming fandango away from the abyss and did Simon Bridges, leader of the National party, do such a thing?

Pause for a moment, take a nice deep breath and say it with me now people.

BUT NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

And let’s be crystal clear about things here. It’s not about Jamie-Lee Ross being the leaker, or not (because the evidence remains inconclusive); it’s not about National getting to the bottom of this or even Bridges being seen to do the right thing as leader.

This whole mess, which has now exploded into the public in a torrent of political diarrhea, came about from forcing Ross into a corner by publicly announcing the results of the leaker inquiry, thus bringing the hammer down in the most painful of ways and leaving him with no option to do what he did and air even more of the party's dirty laundry in public.

So where to now?

Well depending on the various takes in the media we can expect Simon Bridges to be rolled this week, except we can’t because some people are clearly out of their minds if they think that this will precipitate a leadership coup that fast.

As of yesterday Judith Collins had already swung in behind Bridges, even if only to distance herself from the fall out of her previous supporter, Lee-Ross, melting down in public, and done so in the most passive aggressive fashion by stating that she supports Simon but had Lee-Ross been under her control she would have reigned him in long ago.

Slightly more saner minds have realised that if National tries to roll Bridges it will open itself up to all of the same drama and chaos that Labour had for its nine miserable years in opposition, as it chopped and changed leaders to suit the dynamics of its own internal rivalries rather than its own unity as a party, and that’s a path I think even National is not willing to tread, yet.

What is clear is that Ross has gone all in on this but even then it might not be enough to make the nut as you can bet your bottom dollar that the National leadership will have assembled a political hit team as of last night to neutralize Jamie-Lee by bringing as much pressure to bear on him as possible so he will just shut up and take what’s coming, secret recording or otherwise, rather than run about in public like a chicken with its head cut off and further damaging the one thing that National has going for it at this time: its rock solid party polling.

Fact is that while Bridges has now crippled his chances to lead National into the next election the Party will not be willing to take action in the short term because it would do far more damage than good for National Inc. 

National usually deals with its messes in-house rather than in public so I think we can kiss goodbye to the rather brief period of political glasnost that National had been going through and expect that door to start closing, as those old hair trigger reflexes, from when National was a scandal plagued government, kick back in and mouths start shutting like open minds at an Exclusive Brethren Sunday school class.

What is guaranteed is that Bridges will have to act and, somewhat ironically, do so publicly. Ross has drawn a line in the school yard sand, and before all the students dared Bridges to cross it. 

And Bridges will have to cross that Rubicon or face both public and internal flack as National is exposed as a house divided (again) if he does not deal with it which, interestingly, explains his comments a few weeks back about National repealing the Waka jumping bill but not ruling out using it because this is just such a situation where it could be used to shut Jamie-Lee Ross down as quickly as possible without having to wait two years until the next election.

Still that’s cold comfort for Bridges and National in general as this now gives the Coalition government a free pass for however many months it takes to fix this mess and puts all the pressure on Simon Bridges as he must now be starting to feel like Bill English once did as sharks like Judith Collins circle ominously while more silent predators, like Amy Adams, lurk in the shadows and the whole debate about “who will rule National” starts again in earnest.

However one thing is for certain and that’s Simon Bridges needs to stop holding press conferences to speak whatever is on his mind and then inadvertently air Nationals dirty laundry in public because this is the very dynamic which gave John Key such an easy ride in his time as PM as then it was Labour, Andrew Little and all the others, too busy bickering among themselves, to spend much time holding Key’s government to account, while now Jacinda & Co can sail through their own troubles knowing that National is too disorganized to be an effective opposition.

So in summation Bridges could not keep his mouth closed, now Jamie Ross can not keep his mouth closed and so National gets all the negative publicity it can handle while Winston and Jacinda watch and laugh. 

This is why National cant have nice things.

Update - Ross has quit and left a trail of destruction and various accusations (see link) in his wake and with such a fast moving story its better to wait a day or so before seeing what comes out in the wash before reporting further but suffice it to say this is not over yet.



NOTE - long term readers with good memories may remember that I wrote a post with a similar title in 2017 about a similar situation in Labour with Andrew Little, Willie Jackson and Poto Williams.

The accidental princess: exploring the rise, costs and consequences of Jacindamania

Mania, also known as manic syndrome, is a state of abnormally elevated arousal, affect, and energy level, or "a state of heightened overall activation with enhanced affective expression together with lability of affect." Although mania is often conceived as a "mirror image" to depression, the heightened mood can be either euphoric or irritable; indeed, as the mania intensifies, irritability can be more pronounced and result in violence, or anxiety. - Wikipedia

NOTE - Play THIS while reading.

Its seems appropriate (and ironic) that while the Prime Minister is being feted overseas the luster of Jacindamania is fading here in NZ.

While Jacinda is out strutting on the global stage and appearing on talk shows the Clare Curran/Derek Handley scandal has finally been linked back to Jacinda herself (with the release of Mr Handleys personal communications with her) and its shows that the PM has not really been forthcoming on her dealings with Mr Handley or explaining how Mr Handley beat out all other contestants for the job.

What it does shows is that behind that heavily manufactured image of a young, smiling, millennial mother the Prime Minister is just another scumbag politician who will do whatever it takes to protect and promote her own (and her friends) while doing little else as the scandals start to pile up and the real issues continue to burn the country down.

And this shows exactly how far we have come in the last year, as 12 months ago Jacinda was being feted in Aotearoa, appearing on the Beehive stage extolling the virtues of real change and doing things differently (with the 100 day plan) while today the she has told the public that "radical change takes time" and allowed almost every genuine change based initiative to be watered down or have its agenda hijacked by vested interests until the voting public has come to the bitter realization that despite all the talk of "change" little has actually changed and little will except for the glitzy policy cosmetics used to whore up minor policy tweaks so they appear better than they are.

But how did things change so drastically? How did the revolutionary fervor of the 2017 election, with its message of transformation away from the Neo Liberal nightmare get deflected into this endless stupor of denied expectations and ministerial and managerial incompetence?

Neon lights, Nobel Prize

A good starting point for that question is the slick presentation by Jacinda and Winston recently to reassure the public that the revolution was still on track.

The contents of said presentation, done hurriedly to assure the public that a) Winston was not really running the show; b) that Jacinda was an effective leader and c) that this government (Labour led or Coalition notwithstanding) actually had an agenda and were sticking to it, were 12 priorities for moving the country forward which was  referred to by the Jacinda as “Our Plan”.

Our Plan? Lets look at "Our"plan shall we.

• Grow and share New Zealand's prosperity more fairly
• Support thriving, sustainable regions
• Govern responsibly
• Transition to a clean, green carbon-neutral New Zealand
• Ensure everyone who is able to is earning, learning, caring or volunteering
• Support healthier, safer and more connected communities
• Ensure everyone has a warm, dry home
• Make New Zealand the best place in the world to be a child
• Deliver open, transformative and compassionate government
• Build closer partnerships with Māori
• Value who we are as a country
• Create an international reputation we can be proud of

Stop and think about the above list for a moment, and try to imagine who, or what, was in charge when the name “Our Plan” was decided upon because the priorities themselves are a grab bag of feel good slogans and mindlessly obtuse platitudes on a list that looks exactly like it was ripped right from the white board in what could only have been an extremely panicky brainstorming session in the wake of the the ongoing bad press the government has been getting.

Now compare that list of lite weight political soundbites with the much more meaty fare on offer in the original coalition agreement from October last year which included clear directions on housing (establish a Housing Commission), law and order (1800 new police officers, increased funding and a Criminal Cases Review Commission), the environment (moving to being emissions free, a climate commission and alternatives to 1080), immigration (cutting down on low skill workers and migrant exploitation) and even smaller things like a commitment to build a Maori Battalion museum and a free trade agreement with Russia.

One of those lists shows a sense of direction and plans on how to get there while the other reeks of having been desperately pulled out of ones sweaty arsehole in the wake of bad press. Which one do you think is which?

I mean does the government need one of its "priorities" to be “govern responsibly”, have such blindly self-obvious things such as “grow and share [New Zealand’s] prosperity more fairly” or include such a meaningless statement such as “value who we are as a country”? None of the above have any weight or even any semblance of a practical policy behind them. They are nothing more than hot air on par with the previous national government saying they will make NZ pest free by 2040, but now writ large and wholesale rather than just one single area.

And the rest don't help either as things like "Create an international reputation we can be proud of" seems to indicate that we currently don't have a reputation we can be proud of while "Ensure everyone who is able to is earning, learning, caring or volunteering" is so vague and nebulous that its clear that this is a list by committee of spineless and brainless jellyfish who somehow found themselves in charge of ruining a country.

All of these 12 points are just nothing but self sanctified farts being sniffed wholesale by people so smug with themselves but who have clearly no idea of what they are doing and when faced with a crisis or an actual issue which needs addressing have instead fallen back on the comfortable bureaucratic illusion of action by group think and list making which is more commonly known as the disease called Injelititis or Palsied Paralysis.

I've been everything you want to be

Today we have a government which cant agree on its direction, cant govern its members and is now desperately careening from one crisis to another in a sweaty fever dream where its become abundantly clear the disparate elements of this coalition government are held together by one single solitary thing: Jacinda Arden, or more correctly Jacindamania.

Twist it round and look it from any angel you like, struggle with it and agonize about it or even silently squirm in sweaty denial BUT in the end you will have to accept that the reason why we currently have the the highly suspect government we have is because of the sudden, and mostly unexpected rise of Jacinda Ardern to the leadership of Labour just two months for the 2017 election.

Yes, its painfully true and also desperately worrying but dont say its not so because if you think its anything else that got us where we are then you are a god damned liar; and a fool to boot!

Think about it. 80 days before the election Labour was polling a dismal 24% on a long running downwards curve and had Andrew Little as its gormless leader, a party which was composed of dull washed up MPs that no one wanted to vote for, a policy platform that was was dead on arrival and the political appeal of a road kill possum (leaking from all orifices) being thrown onto your kitchen table during a quiet Sunday breakfast.

Then suddenly, Little quit, Jacinda Ardern became queen and the rocket took off. Two months later Labour had got 37% in the polls and there was a tangible sense that they would be the next government, once the paperwork was sorted out.

And the only thing that changed between Little stepping down and the eventual coalition agreement with NZ First, three months later, was Jacinda Ardern. She alone was responsible for the 14% points that Labour rose in the final two months AND nothing else.

Go look at the latest Colmar Brunton polling and skip to page 7, where it shows the party vote over the last decade. See that red line (denoting Labour [sic]) which continually struggles, like a drowning person, to desperately stay above 30% polling for most of the last 10 years. Then see how it suddenly shoots up to the high 30s/low 40s in mid to late 2017, thats Jacindamania!

Jacindamania sucked back Labours wayward voters from the Greens and dragged down the party vote of every other political party in that election (go check the numbers of you don't believe me) while also raising the overall percentage of people who voted, after two decades of decline. It killed wholesale both the Maori and United Future parties and swept their MPs off the political chess board in such a dramatic and sudden fashion that NZ politics, for the first time since MMP began, had a major reduction in the number of political parties in parliament.

Also, sitting inside Jacindamania, and fueling its monstrous rise, are the massive expectations by the general public for change, real change, away from the imbalanced tenets of neo-liberalism and rapacious capitalism and towards a freer, fairer place to live. This is the political equivalent of the high octane fuel that sends rockets into orbit, very powerful but also extremely unstable.

So, call it a paradigm shift, a power shift or a re-alignment with the zeitgeist but don't deny that had Andrew Little led Labour until polling day the outcome would have been a fourth term National government, and Bill English as PM rather than the coalition government we have today and Jacinda Ardern as PM, thats the power of Jacindamania.

When a mirror speaks the reflection lies

And an explanation for the phenomena of Jacindamania lies in an area of Political Science that is rarely explored but which can exert a tremendous influence over peoples, nations and states: The Cult of Personality.

Put simply this phenomena creates a heroic image for a particular (political, religious or otherwise) leader which, regardless of reality, subsumes the actual leader themselves in a popular image of that individual that exaggerates (and eventually warps) their characteristics and abilities to suit a particular narrative . The result is that the public (or a section of it) see only the manufactured image and worship it accordingly and will also defend it from all criticism until the cult itself is extinguished or dies.

NZ has its own particular form of the cult which has manifested itself in the Svengali magnetism of Jokey John key; the paternal strong woman of Helen Clark; the noble but all too human David Lange and the benevolent dictatorship of Robert Muldoon. In short NZ has a thing for strong leaders who take stands on issues and can keep their minions in line.

And all are, despite their faults and failings, generally considered good leaders. Yes some tripped up at the end but its the consistency of their long run as leader that is important because the NZ public knows what it wants and any person who has the stones to swing is ensured an extended stay in the top job while any candidate that does not fit the profile is tainted from day one and will be hounded until they fall. Call it political reverse tall poppy syndrome.

However this is the problem with Jacindamania as unlike the previously mentioned PMs and their respective positions in the NZ political pantheon, Jacinda Ardern stands apart as in her case the cult came first and not after her time as PM.

But I can see your not convinced so lets have a look at the last two examples of the cult prior to Jacinda: John Key and Helen Clark. Whether you liked them or not few people could argue credibly that they were not both popular and effective leaders as each led their respective governments for three terms and with nary a challenger to their power or issue which derailed their political agendas.

Both Clark and Key had strong leadership backgrounds before coming into the top job; with Clarke having served in the Fourth Labour government as a minister across multiple portfolios and having a long time in politics (both on the opposition benches and in Young Labour) while Key made it to the top in the cut throat world of international merchant banking where he earned the nickname the "smiling assassin" for his ability to get things done without ruffling feathers and earned a fortune in the process.

Both Key and Clark ran their governments with a tight hand and both (and this is a key point) were quick to yank offending ministers and MPs back into line or, when need be, remove, demote or just outright kick their asses to the curb with no questions asked. And from such actions it was abundantly clear that both of these two PM understood Machiavelli's dictum about the leader needing to have both a public and private face and how the public persona of the good leader need not be in alignment with the need to get things done (sometimes to protect the public image) in private.

Both of these two long serving Prime Ministers were able to get much of their parties respective political agendas through select committee and parliament which is a feat in and of itself and one which shows that without an effective leader at the helm a party, and its agenda, are doomed from the start as both external pressures and internal rivalries will detect any weakness and tear it apart.

Like them or hate them both of these two PMs were  skilled political operators who not only got the job done but did so with generally high popularity polling. And while Clark worked to bring the unwieldy elements of NZ First, United Future and the Alliance (with Jim Anderton as deputy PM in the first term) into a working government (showing that the political manage a trios of NZ First/Labour/Greens is not so unique or unusual as we think) Key, despite his relative political experience, was able to shackle The Maori Party, ACT and United Future to the National party wagon with the political equivalent of beads and blankets and ensure three terms of a National Government despite an endless cascade of scandals and MP misbehavior on almost his personal charms alone.

Thus both Helen Clark and John Key served their time with a formidable personality cult grown about them and even after leaving office both have retained a degree of their old magical persona in much the same way as some actors retain status on the basis of a classic role they played.

I'm the smiling face on your TV

Thus we come to Jacindamania and its clear that Ardern is neither in the mold of Clark or Key and that there is something weirdly askew about this iteration of the PM personality cult which indicates that Ardern is not the political warlord that Key and Clark were.

And I will be the first to admit its hard to put a finger on the queer dissonance that surround Jacinda Ardern as PM, given the high levels of political static that Jacindamania has created, but after some time and thought I think I know why Ardern is not going to be a three term political god like Clark or Key and will likely be more along the lines of a one term wonder like Norm Kirk (with his tranformative take on NZ government but without his heart attack) or a two term scarred idealist like David Lange (who made it into a second term on the back of things like Nuclear free NZ but was then roasted alive by the public and his own party as Rogernomics destroyed NZ).

First up, Ardern is not an electorate or campaign politician like all of the above. She failed to win back the long term Labour stronghold of Auckland Central from Nikki Kaye in two elections (2011 and 2014) and was saved only by the party list from political oblivion (making her a distinct rarity in NZ political leaders but possibly a sign of the future). This is important because it shows that her personal image and mana is not road or battle tested and therefore her ability to be graceful under fire is suspect.

Next, her experience prior to NZ politics was working for Tony Blair right at the time when he was bending over backwards for George Bush Juniors invasion of Iraq does her no favors and while she managed to win Mt Albert in both the by and general election (both in 2017) a shaved monkey in a red cap and t-shirt could have held this rather red of seats so thats not saying anything about her political skills either.

Next up is that Ardern has had no previous experience as a Minister (like Clark) or a high level executive (like Key) and has spent most of her nine years in parliament as a mute backbencher or shadow minister in some marginal capacity until early 2017 when she became deputy leader for Andrew Little after long serving Labour battler Annette King was pushed aside as part of the ABL (Anyone But Little) faction of the party. So again we have someone in the top job who had almost no prior experience in any role where managing a team of people was a required skill, let alone running the country.

And its this curious lack of skill, experience or ability for the PM role which shows up Jacindamania as the vaporous apparition that it is and Ardern herself as less some political Boudica (like Clark) or Svengalli (like Key) and more like a heavily manufactured, flash in the pan, sensation like Britney Spears and shows the incredible gap between the rather undefined image that Jacindamania presents of Ardern herself (one where the public got excited about her) and the rather stark reality of a late 30s millennial suddenly becoming the leader of a country with no prior experience or skill for such work.

Its the political equivalent of the acne ridden teenage fry-cook at Wendy's being suddenly, and inexplicably, being promoted to national manager of the company and expected to whip up a plan to boost sales in one week.

But if you want to know what really drives Jacindamania it is not in Jacinda Ardern herself that we must look but rather into the climate and tenor of the times in which she arose to understand why the fry cook is now running the entire company.

I know your anger, I know your dreams

Think back to late 2015 and early 2016. National was well into its third term, Key was finally starting to slump in the popularity polling from his stratospheric highs in the first term (near 60%) and the dreaded (and inevitable) third-term-itis has set in as National was staggering from one scandal to another, the Housing Hernia was coming to a boil and all other other issues (like immigration, water etc) were creating the doom laden atmosphere which prompted me to start blogging.

The party polling was consistently stable but it was clear that it was Key, and his massive popularity, which was keeping National going rather than anything else and its draining effects on Key were abundantly clear when he unexpectedly quit politics in late 2016 citing burnout of all things. I suppose even an obviously evil man such as key can have his spirit drained by being chained to a broken down wagon of mongoloid retards such as most National MPs are.

In short the mood in the nation was one of change that could be summed up as ABN or Anyone But National.

However change in NZ politics and governments works best with a dynamic leader to front the prospective change agent and you only have to look at the rise of Helen Clarke or Winston Peters in the wake of the previous National government (1990 to 1999) to see what created and drove their rises as popular political figures and this is the similar dynamic which has driven Jacindamania but with one important difference.

While both Clark and Peters were popular figures in their times no one ever spoke of Helenmania or Winstonmania which is a clear indication that their popularity was rooted more in the person themselves and not in the aura surrounding them (hence the term mania) and both, in their own ways, have demonstrated their longevity and skills countless times over the years while Ardern is struggling after just 12 months into the job.

Thus Winstion with his rebel roots and Clark with her solid record and iron hand were clear leadership contenders before they rose to prominence while in mid 2016 no one in the right mind would have predicted that Jacinda Ardern would be sucked into office in late 2017 via the political equivalent of Beatlemania.

Also worth noting is that in the age of populism and FukYoo politix, post truth and the #Metoo movement the rise of feelgood populists like Emanuel Macron, Justin Trudeau and Barrack Obama (a phenomena I refer to "soft-core politicians") concurrent to the rise of hard line populists (referred to as the "Neo-strongmen" like Trump, Erdogan, Duerte, Xhi and various figures in Europe) Jacinda as PM is an indication that NZ is not immune to this trend.

I sell the things you need to be

So lets recap: Labour in a political slump, deadbeat leader and party while the mood of the nation was for political change BUT not if Andrew Little and Labour were going to be the government (hence the 24% polling).

Then a political pawn (Jacinda Ardern) somehow makes it across the board to become a queen and the game changes completely.

The question then becomes who moved that pawn or who moved the other pieces out of the way so Ardern could make it to the final rank?

The answer to this question is also the answer to those who created, nurtured and have profited most of Jacindamania (in the classic example of Cui bono?) and that is the members of the ABL faction that had always opposed the imposition of Andrew Little on the party by its union component and who were more than happy to let him crash and burn in the 2017 general election if they could not have one of their own in charge.

Think about it, Ardern gets gifted the ultra safe seat of Mt Albert seat after failing to win back Labour stronghold, Auckland Central, on two consecutive occasions. Shortly after she just happened to become Little's deputy (beating out the expected and much more experienced choice) and starts to suck up what little media oxygen he had left so that he drags the party into the political abyss.

But is Ardern part of this plan or just a useful patsy in this scenario? 

The answer is Ardern is both conspirator and pasty as she herself has carefully nurtured her own image but at the end of the day she has been the sole vehicle that Labour could use to get back into power and as such her rise smacks of carefully contrived media hype to tap into the desperate need of those left leaning voters who were pining for the days of Auntie Helen and could not stomach another three years of National and Bill English.

Bottom line is that the rather undefined image of Jacinda Ardern as something special is what got Labour back into office but as the pressures mounts the image has faded away to reveal a rather inexperienced individual who has about as much control over her party as any other backbench MP that who was suddenly thrust into the spotlight on account of their having some quirk of character which temporarily snagged the public's interest.

I exploit you, still you love me

We now have roughly two years before the next general election and in those 24 months expect to see more and more of the gloss wear off Jacindamania and more and more pressure be brought to bear on Ardern herself because there is no one else in Labour or this government which can or is doing any of the heavy lifting.

So, expect her to fumble before the cameras as sooner or later she will get caught in a lie and nothing in her previous experiences indicate that she has the skills to talk her way out of it. Spin doctors are not expected to be the subject of their own spin; they are backroom people and rarely able to survive the harsh glare of public scrutiny and a government that promises everything to everyone delivers nothing.

And as the lies pile up, as the agenda is watered down into an unrecognizable mush (now almost there given the porridge that the recent 12 points is), as one MP or another gets caught in a scandal or when National get their game together (because another thing enabling Jacindamania is the fact that ABN still exists and while Simon Bridges has tried mightily its clear that John Key he aint) the next two years till polling day will descend into a personal hell for Jacinda Ardern as she is forced to carry more and more of the reality that Jacindamania has previously been obscuring from the public.

To be fair both Key and Clark stumbled with their image in time as well but for both of them it was well into their third term and after many slings and arrows had been fired their way before they were brought down and that was because both had their own particular skills and experiences to be more than just a selfie photo with some adoring admirers and genuinely transcended their image to resonate in that particular way that most Kiwis can relate to. Ardern does not do that.

For all her popularity Ardern is not relateable or self depreciating (like Key) or as the benevolent matriarch (like Clark) and not having much pull in an actual electorate is part of her failure as well because Ardern has clearly not worked on her public image before becoming PM, while Clark and Key most certainly had*.

But in the end the immense expectations which have fueled the rise of Jacindamania (that rocket fuel from before) will also be its downfall as when they are not met the rocket will run out of momentum, plunge back to earth and explode in a fireball. 

And the public backlash itself will become its own revolution (or even a counter revolution to propel National back into power) as the electorate voices its unhappiness with how things are going. 

Already its started with a business community which is clearly not down with giving up its easy living and the increasingly displaced lower and middle classes Jacinda (read teachers and nurses) who have ground Jacindamania into paste between them with only a few desperate acolytes left to protect and shepherd its battered image into September 2020.

The key indicators to watch for will be when her personal polling starts to slip and the fragile tethers that bind the coalition (ie the ABN movement) loosen enough to allow ideas into the heads of NZ First and the Greens that maybe, just maybe, a deal with National can be done (both parties could be pried away from the coalition if its was clear that Jacindamania was going down for the count). 

Also worth noting is that Jacindamania is only a one time thing, you cant capture the magic a second time around unless your candidate has some actual charisma or mana to tap into so election 2020 will see Labour on the hustings without the superstar draw of the 2017 election.

You gave me power in your Gods name

But if you want some sort of statistical entree for this soon to be circus of the damned then check out the oft neglected "don't know/refused" figures from the Colmar Brunton report and dig what they are saying because as of September 2017 the don't knows were at a very low 7% (after their pre election 20%), reflecting the gap voters who often wait to see which way the wind blows before swinging in behind the general electoral mood. 

But as of August 2018 dont knows had almost doubled to 12% and when you add in the refused at 4% you get a rather leery 16% of punters who were down with Jacinda 12 months ago but have since become disillusioned and once again put back out to sea.

Of course you could argue that there is nothing direct to correlate this with Jacindamania and on the surface your right but given that pre election they were at 20%, immediately post election they were at 7% and now are climbing back up I think its pretty clear that these are the first refugees from jacindamania, but not the last.

In my pissed away revolution post a few months back I noted that the hideous emasculation that made Labour into the spineless political jellyfish it is today is also the same factor that helped create the rise of Jacindamania.

Helen Clark gutted any and all rivals for her position with such force and ruled Labour with such control that all the virile specimens were killed or driven out of the herd while leaving behind only the weak and sick. But even among the weak and sick one case rise to dominate, in fact its a lot easier when the rest are poxy mongrels and you have just a hint of pure-breed about you.

The result is the kind of politician that is perfect for a party of "everyone gets a trophy" MPs and even more perfect as the leader; unfortunately reality, and especially political reality does not play that game and there is no second place for polished turds when its the top job up for grabs, its strictly zero sum.

Jacinda Ardern was swept into office by the political equivalent of a children's fad for a particular toy or pop star and such things are never meant to last. The consequence is that baring the rise of any other left leaning sensation the 2020 election may end up being fought exclusively on issues as there is no appeal in watching Ardern and Bridges face off for the crown when both are responsible for fiddling while Aotearoa burns.



*-To be fully fair I am willing to acknowledge that it may be I who am out of touch with political reality and the future is just more of the same but if that's so then god helps us !!!!

NOTE- all section titles are lyrics taken from "Cult of Personality" by the most excellent band Living Colour