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Friday, 9 December 2016

How soon is now: Does national call a snap election or risk waiting?*

Well that was an anti-climax.

Here I was hoping for some sort of superstars of wrestling royal rumble and after three days it’s all over bar who will be deputy leader (like that contest really matters).

Given the speed with which the contenders started lining up after Key announced his resignation and the speed with which they withdrew I am guessing that the long necrotic hand of Key is still strong enough to reach out from the grave and still their ambitions for just a while longer.

But for how much longer?

So while English is on the throne it can’t be an easy feeling perched there, wondering who, or what, is plotting, planning and scheming , less than 100 meters from where he sits.

And as I write this John Key is less than 100 meters away from me, opening a new building in Christchurch in what was obviously one of his few and final acts as PM.

Still the dark lure is there and I noted a number of people taking photos of him, along with police trying to appear unobtrusive and his ever present DPS team in effect.

So we will get English as PM, either Simon Bridges or Paula Bennett as deputy and the possibility of some of the dead wood being replaced, although don’t bet on it.

Still the problem remains, who would make a good PM?

So I decided to circle the floor and poll as many people as I could in five minutes or less in what is a highly scientific method of determining the “mood of the people”.

And the results were:

John Key – 3
Winston Peters -6
Bill English – 1
Barack Obama – 1

So the preferred choice for PM among a random sample of the building I work in is Winston Peters and this was an even more astounding choice when my follow up question about their political orientation turned up only one of those six who was a NZ First supporter.

So what gives?

To be fair I did not specify that the contender had to be a member of the National Party but still its telling that in such a climate that two of the names given were not even members of the National Party, one is currently about to leave the job and the one who currently has the role polled badly.

And this is probably what’s adding to the swirling speculation of an early election and the dawning realization that no matter what English does there is no easy answer to his problems, or Nationals for that matter.

And just to add to the speculation, how about this little table from Kiwiblog to add to the conspiracy theories currently doing the rounds.

One thing is clear, no matter how much National shuffles faces, names and portfolios its heading for a tough time ahead and I am interested to see how long it takes before one of the following happens:

1.      National start to drop in the polls
2.      A new government scandal emerges and National start to drop in the polls
3.      English can’t keep order inside cabinet or without and National starts to drop in the polls
4.      The actual truth about Key leaving emerges and national starts to drop in the polls
5.   National starts to drop in the polls

You get the picture.

Sooner or later National is going to blink and my guess is an early election is a possibility due to the fact that nothing they do between now and an actual election is going to make a shred of difference except some sort of false flag operation to distract the public.

So is it better to head to the election now while the party’s polling is still high or risk hanging around and watching it drop and then calling an election?

Either way its shuffling deck chairs on the Titanic.

*-with apologies to The Smiths


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