No Better Place to Die: Reframing the CGT debate

Who brings a knife to a gun fight?

In a week where the public had two different flavors of hysteria to choose from (that being China or the CGT) it was disappointing, yet expected, to see the debate rise and fall on such simple terms that statements from quisling traitors like Simon Bridges, and many of the useful idiots in the media, were nothing above the kind of statements found in the average comments section online with Bridges calling it a "kick in the guts" for middle NZ.

Still, its expected to see Simon playing the fear card because at this point he might as well with his credibility as leader shot and the party trying to figure out how to remove him without treading the same doom-laden path as Labour once did.

But Bridges, like a drowning man, has clutched at the first thing that came his way and he probably feels like the CGT is the perfect vessel to keep himself, and his leadership hopes, afloat until election 2020 but such is his mind now that going all out with frothing fear mongering statements in the media, sorta like Donald J Trump with his comments about Mexicans being "criminals and rapists", is treading a dangerous path.

"Yes, its true, the CGT is going to climb in your bedroom window one night, tie and gag you before raping your hard earned capital gains while you watch in mute, bug eyed horror, at the unfolding terror of all that retirement income being stripped away from you until you have nothing left and your forced to live in some dingy rest home (possibly owned by some ex All Blacks) for the rest of your miserable life."*

Its a shocking thought I know but that's the power of fear and its the nightmare that only a well paid mouth piece, like Simon (or Fox News) could spin with a straight face but in the age of FukYoo Politix Simon probably thinks this is his Orewa Speech moment where he taps directly into the twitching nerves of "middle NZ" and rides the shuddering spasm all the way into the Beehive.

Funny thing about fear though, is that its an irrational impulse and not one subject to much control, specially in the minds of the public, so Bridges might have started something but there is no guarantee that he will remain in charge once the fear machine gets rolling.

Today NZ has a growing wealth disparity, with simple things like a home becoming more and more out of reach for "Middle NZ" and people living in cars or being housed in motels as emergency accommodation and with no prospect of things getting better Simon hoping to tap into their sentiments is like skydiving without a parachute.

But whats done is done and lets not dwell on it for too long because Bridges is clearly consumed with his own fears, that of not being leader for much longer, so like a headless chicken running around screaming the sky is falling, Simon is clearly externalizing his own deep seated fears rather than making any rational debate.

However, while its fun to point at laugh as Simon has (pardon my French) merde son pantalon de grand garcon, the CGT is a genuine attempt to address the issues of growing inequality in NZ and deserves a better level of debate than the one its getting.

Maybe its not the best way to fix things, but that's a debate for another day, whats important here is if you asked most Kiwis if they wanted NZ to have a growing inequality and gap between the rich and the poor, and with the majority being the poor, they would say "hell no!"

So far so simple but if you pressed a bit further and asked what they themselves would do about it, like say pay more tax, or loose their home, few, if any would agree to it. And thats the fear that Simon is hoping to tap into by phrasing the debate in such scary (and misleading) terms.

However, as the gap gets bigger and bigger and more people start piling up on the loosing side of the inequality equation, start to see no real increase in wages and, horror of horrors, the value of their homes decrease (its happening in Oz, will happen in China soon and is going to happen here) fear is going to drive people to vote for the biggest, craziest, person who will promise to end their fears and dish out a healthy dose of retribution to the thieving assholes who stole their future (read the Rich and National).

So question time darlings: do you think Simon Bridges will be the one that people are going to trust to quench their fears when the skeletal hand of poverty, homelessness and starvation reaches out for them?

If you said yes then good on you for being an honest, if misguided, National Party supporter (or at least the part that still likes Simon Bridges) but the chances of Bridges being able to ride the Chaos Tiger into office when the PMs job is up for grabs is down to single digits (just like his poll ratings) so watch your back Simon.

While if you said no well done for not being fooled by his lies but shame on you for still framing the debate at the level of fearmongering.

Inequality in NZ will either be fixed or it will grow and when things get crunchy nobody is going to be trusting Simon Bridges to lead them out of the maze when he is the one of the criminal cyphers that lead them in.

However, on the flip-side of things, Jacinda Ardern and Labour are going to have to make a decision about whether to do what some are calling political suicide or asking if "this a hill worth dying on?"

The answer to that question is yes, yes it is.

To be fair, the CGT was never going to be an easy sell and calling it something more palatable like the Simon Bridges Rich Asshole Tax would probably go a long way to soothing the public's pulsating fear glands, as most of the public in NZ (including most National supporters) do not consider themselves to be "rich assholes" so if posed as such most would happily get behind seeing those "poncy bastards" suffer.

And if you want a fairer NZ then you may not want a CGT but call it by any other name and you would be behind it 100%, you know you would. Its either that or you come up with some actionable suggestions for rolling back the growing sludge of poverty and inequality in NZ.

What you don't have any suggestions? How surprising! Somehow I did not think you would but thats ok because in the end the answer is simple: Tax the Rich! Make them pay their fair share!

And thats just what the CGT is once you scrape the maggots of fear (helpfully sprinkled by Simon Bridges) away. The CGT will be a step towards equality. It might not fix everything but its a start and it will do so by taking from the rich and giving to everyone else.

Meanwhile, as for that "hill" question the answer is in the title of this post because if Labour doesn't go though with it then predictions of electoral defeat gloated about by China Spokesperson and part time National party MP Judith Collins, may just come true as after Labour fell back on hills like Kiwibuild and Budget "responsibility" there are not many hills left to stand on. Just the flat open plains of mismanagement, muddling and mediocrity where their is no moral high ground and Labour can easily be outflanked on issues.

But if it comes down to Labour going into battle but being back-stabbed by Winston Peters at the critical moment then so be it as that would likely not save them anyway if caught in the path of the runaway, blood spattered, combine harvester that is fear.

Because what got them [Labour] elected in the first place was an unspoken promise to fix things like inequality, to make NZ a better place (as trite as that can sometimes sound), and the ongoing worry of National doing noting (and promising nothing) but more of the same inequality enhancing policies mixed in with abject outburst of fear which will eventually be the trigger that truly unleashes the FukYoo beast on NZ politics.

CGT is not quite Brexit for NZ in its scope but the choice is just as stark and if Labour looses then it was a brave last stand of the idea that Aotearoa can have a fair and equal society where the rich can be rich but not at the expense of the everyone else. Because if no CGT then what else is there?

Still Simon is going to continue his squawks of fear but the louder he squawks the more clearer it is that he is in the pay of those wealthy few who don't want to pay their fair share, who dont want to see NZ prosper because it means they would get less than they greedily have now. However if Simon wants to sell his soul to the devil and whore his backside to China for dollars thats his business but the very clear subtext of his message is "screw you guys I got mine, sorry about yours!"

If it was me I would simply declare a national emergency, have anyone over a certain income threshold taken away in buses to be housed in rat hole motels before being brought before a hastily convened "tax court" which would summarily strip them of ALL their wealth as punishment for their capital gains and then send them on their way, to sleep in the back of a crappy rusted out car.

So its probably a good thing that I am not in charge but that's because I don't speak for the today, I speak for the tomorrow, or more correctly the tomorrow of FukYoo Politix where Simon got his way, rode the fear into the PMs seat and then did nothing while NZ continued to rot away and then it got so bad that people stopped voting for the sane or even the reasonable, fled to the margins, and elected their own populist demagogue who promised to end the fear by their own "10 point plan"** to fix things.

Or even worse they stopped voting and just sought to change things by hanging a few of the rich or rioting in the street (a popular pastime in France now) because it became clear that no government would do anything so f**k it lets have a riot!

See, I can play the fear card as well and its much bigger and nastier than Simon's.

This is why Simon Bridges summoning fear in the popular mind is not a smart move, its an incredibly short term and very risky strategy that will do nothing but buy him some time to save his own ass but doom the country to more, and worse, of the same inequality issues that we have now.

Thanks Simon, thanks a bunch!

If Labour was to push the CGT, fail on the issue and either loose the next election or win and then muddle on doing little else then its a hard to decide which is the worse option but most people would rather they fought the good fight (rather than just trying to save their own political careers) as its an issue which is worth fighting, and politically, dying for.



*-Hypothetical statement from Simon Bridges.
**-Just Google "10 point plan" and see how many people have had one.

Now on Twitter because why not!

If its good enough for Donald J Trump its good enough for me.

Standing up to China: The real reason National is tanking and Labour is up in the polls

Ok you primitive screwheads listen up!

So its political poll time again and holy hells bells look at those results, really look at them and tell me what you see.

Yes thats right Labour up, National Down, the Greens slipping and NZ First plunging into well below the 5% threshold in what looks suspiciously like what happened two months before the last general election when Jacinda Ardern blitzkreiged the opposition via the polls and then later on at the polling booth.

And lets put the mechanics of these movements aside for the moment and take a look at how this has been reported in the media or more importantly how this is being reacted to in the media.

Firstly we have Stuff which delivers the bad news via Henry Cooke in rather succinct and factual terms while noting the steaming pile of issues that Kiwibuild and the Karel Sroubek scandal were BUT without directly drawing the obvious conclusion that despite these two very damaging situations Labour has come out the other side with a jump in polling.

Then we have Tracy Watkins, also of Stuff, delivering a rather tepid opinion piece which tantalizingly hints at what may actually be going on behind the scenes but ends up with a lot of overly dramatic sentences or questions which state the obvious (such as "is it time for National to panic?") without really delivering any of the juicy analysis promised.

Meanwhile over at the NZ Herald "political commentator" Bryce Edwards does his usual plagiarist cut and paste job of other peoples work in his latest political roundup which is just sooooo lazy that I genuinely wonder why the Herald employs him and why he does not just make a list of links he wants us to read rather than desperately trying to add value to them by clumsily inserting his usual summary of things.

For Kiffloms sake Bryce, I have heard you speak on Radio NZ and its clear you have both a brain and opinions so why cant you just put these tedious lists to bed and tell us what you actually think, sheesh!

Then there is Audrey Young, also of the NZ Herald, doing just that by stating that its way too early for the knives to come out for Bridges. Well at least its her own opinion and not just a five minute list making exercise which makes its all the more a pity that shes completely and utterly wrong! Not only are the knives out they have been out for months but are held in "stasis" by a certain factor we will get into soon.

So lets check out the blogsphere shall we, perhaps there is more wisdom to be had there.

Over at National party supporting Kiwiblog, David Farrar, is, expectedly, talking things down and doing damage control by explaining this away as some sort of summer "bump" in polling because the PM was out at Davos and saying he will be "more interested in the next poll" but pausing just long enough to not the potential exit of both NZ First and the Greens in the next election based on the current polls.

Well at least its more analysis than the mainstream media but David is just being disingenuous by making it out that Kiwis cared about Jacinda headlining at Davos to be the real reason for the jump Labour has made (and the related decline of National) because this poll is also coming out in the period of the afore mentioned Sroubek and Kiwibuild muck-ups so you would think pressing issues more close to home would negate any temporary spin from mingling with the globalist elite for a few days.

Meanwhile no mention either way over at Norightturn but with the end of the Saudi Sheep Deal, climate change and NZ's open government being rated as marginal perhaps dear old Idiot Savant has other things to report on, maybe, maybe not, but its absence is noted. However as this is one of the better political blogs out there I am prepared to let it pass this time.

But aha, whats this I spy, its the Pundits Tim Watkin noting that the whole thing was "inevitable" and describing Judith Collins as the "complicating factor". Really Tim? Really? But Tim speaks some truth when he notes that its "a long way till the next election" but like all the other examples here there is almost no real analysis of whats gone on and playing the "its inevitable" card is the journalistic equivalent of Deus Ex Machina.

The sun coming up is inevitable, death and taxes are inevitable and given your half baked attempt at describing whats gone on as "inevitable" so is my opinion of your post as a "lazy hack job" inevitable, and you can quote me on that.

And finally over at The Daily Blog we get Martyn Bradburys usual take on things which given his political views, is that view is Bridges is a "dead man walking" which is not new and I could have told him that in October last year with my Dead Party Walking post.

But even Martyn, who can usually be relied upon to make schadenfreude entertaining rounds, out his post with the usual warnings about Judith Collins like she is the political boogeyman and how "right-wing pundits will pray this is rouge" with "rouge" being the polls result and not Collins going bezerek in a cabinet meeting.

Yet even in the Fifth Estate the takeaway on this poll result is way off and while mindful of my previous wisdom about political polls I think its time to set the record straight on why here and now after over 12 months of consistent polling, consistent rumblings of leadership challenges and things like Jamie-Lee Ross that only now is National getting hit in the one thing that has previously been unassailable and was its bedrock of both party discipline and future fortune: Nationals (some say magical) 46% party polling.

And just over a year ago I was pointing out that sooner or later that 46% was going to slip in my series of posts about rehabilitating the National Party but no one was listening then so just for once I am going to say "I told you so" because, unlike Tim Watkins saying saying its inevitable after the fact (easy thing to do Tim), I was saying it was inevitable 12 months ago when there was absolutely no indication that it would drop and in fact was defying all expectations in the post election enviroment.

But lets get to the real question about why it has dropped now.

Conventional wisdom is that its been that gosh-darned Jamie-Lee Ross and his damaging effect on National party polling and moral.

However that makes no sense because the previous Colmar Brunton poll showed absolutely no change to that magical 46% and that was taken right in the eye of the storm that was Ross saga and with the public having full view of the buildup of things in the months before so explaining this away due to Jamie-Lee Ross is just idiotic.

But there is a connection to Jamie-Lee Ross and National getting mugged in its polling and that is the revelation that National MP Sarah Dowie was the person telling Ross to kill himself via text which has not gone down well with the public despite a cabal of certain female National MPs, staffers and some in the media trying to paint her as the victim in the piece while Ross got characterized as the rapist in waiting.

As I have said in previous posts its takes two to tango but Dowie, in an age where that kind of behavior is absolutely not acceptable, went well beyond the fold.

With things like #meetoo and the review on bullying and harassment in parliament Dowie gets exposed as just as bad as any misogynistic male MP who thought that their position or name made them safe and as such its rather fitting that she not only get investigated by the Police but if found to be the sender of that text (and we all know it was her but let the system do its job) then she be cast out of parliament because if it had been Ross (or any other male MP doing such a thing) they would have been gone as of yesterday and the public views on the matter reflected that.

So some splinters of the Jamie-Lee Ross saga have done some damage here but it was always minor and in the end Bridges exercised some degree of damage control, even if only after the fact, by not talking about Ross any further but it was certain parties in the media who sought to paint this in a rather jaundiced light (as described above) that made the backlash there what it was. But still this was not what brought National down.

What about things like the Kiwibuild saga toppling over spectacularly in the early new year or the rancid stink from the Karel Sroubrek scandal that left Labour, Jacinda and Ian Lees-Galloway looking like a king sized hypocrites; shouldn't have those things had some effect in leveling out the poll result?

Well yes they should have and they probably did but when in the context of National selling citizenship to right-wing billionaire Peter Theil and its nurturing of the toxic and cancerous Housing Hernia one foreign drug dealer and a flawed but honest attempt to fix said hernia fall very rapidly into perspective as minor moments rather than deliberate and dishonest politics.

Thus we come to the real reason that National is down in the polls, or more correctly, Labour is up: Standing up to China.

Sure National scare-mongered it up as much as they could but in the end the current government saying no to Huawei for the 5G deal was the right thing to do and Simon Bridges going on TV to moan that New Zealands relationship to a country that is not free, democratic, jails it citizens for no reason, censors their internet, will risk war for its own stupid pride and will happily turn back an Air New Zealand flight due to accidentally mentioning Taiwan is not going to wash.

And that's it, that's the reason why after so long and so much Labour is finally up in the polls; because it made the most ethical decision so far of this government AND followed it through with action. If Labour could do this for things like tax, housing and all the rest Kraff knows where it and National would be polling but I cant imagine that National would be above the mid 20s.

National has been in China's pocket for so long (as Chinese spy Jin Yang is still a member of the party) that National probably don't even realize how distasteful being seen as a quisling is but Ross's recording of Bridges talking treason/sedition on behalf of China is one of the great scandals that the media just don't have the stones to investigate but the public no longer remain comfortable with China as our largest trading partner and using its size and leverage to undermine our democracy though it infiltration of politics both here and abroad.

Thus with National out of government China is no longer getting a free ride and that means that we may still trade with them but we wont be offering up our backsides for China's pleasure.

Something to note also here is that this was not some side effect of Jacindamania, the PM tried to stay well out of it and in the end it fell on Andrew Little, the GCSB and the Five Eyes relationship to see this through and for a public that had been desperately waiting for the government to fire on something and hit a six this was the first time it did since the first 90 days and look what happened.

Supporting this is the minimal movement in preferred PM polling (with Jacinda and Judith slightly up and Simon slightly down) showing that the movement in the party polling is not related to personality politics but rather it was solely an issue which drove this change.

Of course Judith Collins is now polling Higher than Simon Bridges and Bridges definitely has something to worry about but when has he not had to worry about his position as leader. As I have stated before its the toughest job in politics so unless he was harnessing personal mojo like Jacinda Ardern or John Key he was never going to be stroking it big all over the electorate in the preferred PM stakes.

All of this means that while Judith is polling higher she has not dethroned Bridges, yet, but she has out evolved him and that means no slick PR is going to take Simon any higher than he has been and his stock is now falling.

Also that "stasis" effect we have around who will be next leader of National in relation to jolly Judith Collins is due to the high degree of doubt around not only Bridges as being the man for the job but also Collins being the woman for the job (despite her repeated protestations that she does not want it: Your fooling nobody Judith!).

Bridges may not yet have the toxic cast that Bill English had roughly one year ago but as I mentioned late last last year the warranty on his time as leader "has expired" and that view came after I spent an evening speaking with moderate/centrist young Nats and listening to their views on who should be leader.

Short answer to the long question: They don't know who should lead but they sure as heck know it shouldn't be Bridges or Collins.

Nor should it be Paula Bennett, as her recent demotion to drugs "spokesperson" and subsequent beating by Chloe Swarbrick live on national TV showed that Bennett's limited intellect and long history of hypocrisy make her unsuitable to even be deputy leader let alone as some sort of vocal mouthpiece on an issue such as drug reform.

In fact if there is a moral to this story for National it was they should have taken my advice last year ago when I said that for Bridges to succeed as leader he needed to get rid of retched golems like Bennett, Brownlee, Smith and Collins (the remainders of the Gang of Five) and remake the upper party to his own design by letting some younger blood in.

And what a difference that would have made if only Jamie-Lee Ross would have been prevented from going bezerk by giving him the position promised to him by Bridges rather than to corpulent bully-boy Gerry Brownlee.

But its too late now and it does not matter if its Bridges or Collins at the helm of the ship as all Labour has to do is use their position as the government of the day to make a few more things real and you can watch that 41% slide into the 30s and down into the 20s to that place National was in before John Key seduced the party.

So thats the real reason why the poll results are what they are but there is no need to thank me. I do this because I care.


Vootie!