Going Down in Flames*: The end of Andrew Little

Ah, so the chickens have final come home to roost for Andrew Little.

I wake up this morning and what do I spy in the news but Labour slumping further in the polls and Andrew Little flip flopping about whether to leave the job now or take the beating and quit after the election.

Its classic Little, on one hand saying he has thought of falling on his sword and on the other saying he will stick to his guns.

Tracy Watkin's article on Stuff was the most amazing if only for its suggestion that the only thing keeping Little in the role is the cost of printing up new billboards (and that Labour doesn't have the money).

Not that we haven't seen it coming because for well over a year this outcome was always going to be.

My very first blog post over a year ago was about the issues inherent within Labour and Little and I was bemoaning his ineptitude just last month when the party intern scam was distracting form Tapegate.

Along the way I have noted that Little has never seemed up for the job to just simply saying its time to get rid of the man, no matter what.

But did anybody listen? No they did not. Not even National, who want Little in the role because of the damage he does to Labour as leader and how he keeps the more popular Ardern from perking their polls up.

So here we go, Labour is at a 20 year low in the polls, has an unpopular Leader and is facing not only the prospect of electoral annihilation in two months but also loosing its stake as the main opposition party.

But already the arguments about what should happen have started with some on the Left praising the Greens as Labour burns as Chris Trotter does in a recent post while others (Martyn Bradbury) still sees hope left for Labour in the next 60 days if only they can get their game on.

But with all due respect to those two gentlemen, the bleak reality is, and as I have said before I have no joy in pronouncing this, that Labour and Little are doomed this election, the outcome has been a year or more in the making and despite all the warning signs he and the party have continued on with the same old program that they always have.

The same old center left gibberish which is now dead and buried in the UK, where a vivaciously re-energized Left under Jeremy Corbyn has seized the agenda by steering the party out of the center and back to being a party of the people and the working class.

Meanwhile in NZ, Little and Labour have floundered time and time again and now are simply too far gone to save.

Bizarre hopes of a Labour/Greens/NZ First government remain a possibility only if Winston gets what he wants come polling day and that would be the PM role and all the political swag he can scoop.

And such an outcome is not due to people voting for an inherently unstable center/Left government or for any policy of Labours but simply to get rid of National which is not the most solid foundation for building a government on.

Could Labour stomach that? I don't think it could. The idea of Andrew grinning and bearing it have some comedic appeal but the reality of becoming a political catamite for Winston would probably break him forever and see him slink away to political obscurity.

Nor do I think this was an avoidable outcome as Labour's alliance with the Greens was always the marriage of convenience that Labour intended it to be and that both sides knew which way things would go if Labour got its act together which means that the recent poll jump by the Greens means very little overall.

The Greens making capital of Metiria Turei admitting benefit fraud was brilliance in that it benefited (no pun intended) the Greens as a party but disaster in every other way as it cannibalized that poll increase from Labour so that any net gain for the Greens came at the overall cost of beating National in September.

And with the "don't know's" and "refused to answer" at 19% on the Colmar Brunton results its clear that the political Left is in dissary and any gain for the Greens was simply undercutting Labour rather than bringing in new voters which means that the juicy pool of potential voters was unswayed by the Greens and still up for grabs.

But in the end its not Little's fault, we are the ones (actually you guys are since I kept on pointing this impending accident many many times) who perpetuated the illusion that Labour could keep on with its ineffective and useless leader and its out of date manifesto in an age of rampant populism, where the option of getting back to supporting the actual people and the working class was always on the table but individual greed and stupidity got in the way.

So as someone who is sickened at the prospect of another three years of National doing its evil deeds but not going to support dangerous stupidity as the antidote I find no fun in watching this outcome come about but at the same time, we were warned, the signs were always there and we (read you!) let this happen!

So we now have the option of watching this train wreck, with or without Little, going over the cliff and onto the rocks below.

The only good news is that there are some interesting options out there with the demise of Little and Labour.

The Greens might pick up the mantle of being the peoples party (they seem to with their recent changes to personnel and policy) or that NZ First and Winston will check National in their own inimitable way.

We will see in time.

*-Thanks to Chris Trotters post (linked above) for inspiring the title of this post.

If you don’t vote for populism in 2017 it will be back in 2020: bigger, stronger and more pissed off!

If you are not a Member of Parliament or New Zealand’s elite you can stop reading here.

Let’s take a step away from the current day to day of the election cycle and fix our gaze on the larger global political landscape and how NZ might fit into the dynamics of what’s going on.

Recently the world has seen a definite movement towards a series of events, opinions and ideas that people have termed populist. 

Events like the Arab Spring, Occupy Wall Street, Donald Trump, Jeremy Corbyn, Brexit and even our very own Winston Peters all have the populist tinge.

Unfortunately most of the people who use the term populist use it in a negative or pejorative manner which reflects either their own elitist opinions and views or that they are echoing those elite opinions and views (as fed to them by the media).

And to be fair to you elites you should be worried about populism because it is, in essence, a rejection of your self-interested views and market orientated way of doing things and a call to change the direction of not just politics, nations and economies but also whole regions, and perhaps even the world; away from mostly serving only the ultra-wealthy few and realigning it towards that of the common person and the greater good.

Of course at this point the more Right wing of you will be tuning out as you anticipate another “left wing rant” while others on the Left might be gleefully expecting another round of “Bash the Tory” but neither of you are correct because both Left and Right are just vehicles for elites and their politics and as anyone who regularly reads this blog knows I have (and will) bash both sides should the need arise.

And this post is not about what’s wrong on the Left or the Right but what’s wrong with the system because Left and Right are just different symptoms of the same disease, a disease called political decay, and populism, no matter how much you deny it, is the cure.

Thus with the 2017 election shaping up to be an exercise in both mediocrity and banality without even the previous freak show antics of Kim Dot Com or Dirty Politics to make it entertaining that populist undercurrent that has been ticking away in the background, like some weird noise you keep hearing under your floor boards at night has grown from a few isolated bumps into a full blown home invasion.

You can try and bolt the door, desperately hoping to stave off the inevitable by voting National or Labour (or even the Greens) but it will do you no good as New Zealand is not immune and those dark seeds which you sowed over 30 years ago and are now bearing their ominous fruit.

It only took 30 years, approximately time enough for those who grew up in this bleak age and for those who lived though it, to see that there is no greater good waiting for us at the end of the franchise rainbow and that the only way we will get what we want is to take it ourselves, from you.

So if we could consider the body populace like a human mind, the elites might be seen as the “rational” and conscious aspect of that entity while the vox populi is the darker and deeper subconscious, and as modern psychology and science has shown, the subconscious is the far more numerous and powerful of the two and that the ability of the consciousness to control its other is often tenuous at best and pure illusion at worst.

And, if you’re part of NZ’s elite, those nagging voices in the back of your head and that eerie feeling that whatever is scritching away down in the basement is not friendly are not going to go away and will in fact get worse.

Your creeping paranoia that “they are out to get me” is entirely justified, we are out to get you but at this point we are out to get you to do your job, not rip your class out by the roots from this society and plant someone new in charge.

However the recent release of Stats New Zealand’s “Well-being Statistics” when contrasted with the fact that NZ has the most expensive housing in the OECD and all other sorts of negative social indicators shows the struggle between the two parts of the NZ psyche is growing and the gap widening between the populist dreams that helped shape New Zealand in the 20^th century (because if we went back to the 19^th we would have other issues to deal with and that’s for another post)  and the harsh reality that we have become in the 21^st.

And as that gap between dreams and reality grows so too does the populist sentiment and the voices in your head.

And at this point I can hear some of you saying “But it can’t happen here! We are not going to have riots in the streets or mass protests or social disorder. This is New Zealand!”

Really? It can’t happen here?

There is nothing special about NZ; not its size, nor distance from the rest of the world. Nothing in its cultures or demographics which will guarantee insulation from a populist outcome sooner or later.

To be sure populism in NZ will be have a strong NZ flavor (remember the Springbok Tour?) but populism it will still be and the longer it’s takes us to wrest your scaly claws off the levers of power and to steer New Zealand back onto a more equal course the more extreme and negative the outcome will be for you and us as well.

This is the lesson of history that elites rarely bother to learn, the longer you stand in the way of the greater forces of the vox populi the angrier the result and the more likely that you will also be permanently removed in order to enact needed change and that sometimes the change wont be what any party desires.

Take for instance Zimbabwe, which was once Rhodesia. The white elite in Rhodesia fought long and hard for its right to racial minority rule, it won on the battlefield but in the end lost the war; and due to the length and brutality of that struggle the result was not a better place but a new racial elite and dictator, the average person no better off and a pariah nation with crippling debt.

Or how about tropical Singapore which has been under rule of one family almost since independence from Great Britain 50 years ago where harsh censorship, gerrymandering, draconian laws and a “Disneyland with the death penalty” facade are the only means hiding the seething racial tension, political dissent and grinding poverty which many in Singapore face.

And just to round things out how about the UK where one year ago Jeremy Corbyn was being called a political looser and fighting off challenges from inside his own party but nearly won the UK general election and he and his party would win if an election was called today.

This is the power (and peril) of populism; this is what happens when elites decide to gut democracy for their own selfish benefit and refuse to give up their privilege and this is what can happen when even in the face of clear calls for change you won’t back down on your greedy agendas.

This election you’re trying to dampen down the flames of the populist fire that has been burning a long time but with the usual escape hatch of Australia swinging shut there are a lot more refugees from your skeezy dealings than ever before coming home to roost.

You’re working hard to keep us focused on our tri-annual ritual of going to the polling booth and pushing the button for one of your “representatives” in Labour, National or the Greens while trying to contain your agent provocateur over in NZ First, and you might just pull it off this election but for how much longer?

Sooner or later a result will emerge that you cannot contain or control (like Brexit or Trump) and the longer you try and delay things the more extreme the eventual outcome will be.

Have you not figured out yet that people like Trump, Bernie Sander and Jeremy Corbyn are just avatars for change, any change where you are not in charge? They are not there for their good looks or sound policies but because they position themselves as far away as possible from your own dull faced politicians.

Can you not see that we might have a “Kiwi Spring” with crowds milling in Aotearoa Square and that you’re going to have to engage in more repressive and severe means to keep Smith’s Dream in check if that happens.

So this election a vote for any of the mainstream parties is simply a waste and I encourage you to vote for one of the minor parties as you can still do your duty, as the elite of this country, and lead the way rather than slack off at the back, eating all the pies.

You can vote National in the hope of maintaining your illusions for another few years before your front door is kicked in and your dragged out to be put up against a wall or you can vote for Labour with the self-sanctified smugness of the ideological zealot but will still find yourself facing the grim reality of fighting for scraps when things finally go bad.

You can even cast your vote for the Greens as a safety valve “third option” and watch a bunch of political shape-changers slide into parliament and then achieve very little but it won’t stop populism.

This election don’t fight populism, give the people what they want, embrace it, ride that wave of change and ensure your survival rather than your vilification and eventual demise (as a class, not as individuals).

All societies need elites to run them but those elites need to maintain a degree of responsiveness to those who you rule (the Noblesse oblige as it were**) or you will face the consequences when your refusal to do your job leads to the very chaos and anarchy that you have sought to prevent.

You might be able to stave off things in 2017, but its taking more and more energy to do that and sooner or later you’re going to make a fatal slip and no slick talking PM or dead eyed party leader is going to talk their way out of it. You will find the merest thing, the slightest scandal an excuse for behaviors and activities that you won’t be in charge of and people who you won’t be able to get back into the political conga line.

When 2020 comes round you will have fewer options and fewer friends to turn to and populism will be bigger, stronger and way more pissed off as you will have failed to do anything real to stop it and just backed the same broken parties and policies you always have.

So do the right thing this election, back the real parties for change and get rid of your failing lapdogs on the left, right and center*.

  

*-Possibly for new lap dogs but as they say change is as good as a holiday.

**-explored further in an old post of mine back at Kiwipolitico

The Party’s over: Greens vs Winston

Last week was a long time in politics.

It started with lingering stain that is Todd Barclay, continued with the latest political polling and the Barry Coates blog post but ended with the circus sideshow that has been the Green/NZ First Feud.

Most commentators saw it as another one of those sandpit squabbles which have come to characterize NZ politics at election time but it took Jane Bowron to call it for what it was.

And what it was was nothing more than the death knell of the NZ political Left because the Greens, in going after Winston, have made a critical (and fundamental) mistake.

To be sure it made sense for the Greens to try and escape the trap that they have always been in previously come elections; that of always being the bridesmaid and never the bride come polling day, with them always somewhere to the left of Labour and being taken for granted come any negotiation on forming a government.

What did not make any sense was their lashing out at Winston and NZ First, as such an action was the direct opposite of any message they needed to be sending to either NZ First or the electorate (that message being that despite the differences they could try and work to get along if in government together).

The fact that it was a targeted and planned attack, that they let Labour know in advance and that Andrew Little let it go ahead shows exactly what kind of government NZ would get if these three ever tried to form one.

The political party that should have been the target for any attack by the Greens should have been Labour, which was what Barry Coates blog post last week was all about (by making it clear that the Greens would not tolerate an unfaithful Labour cutting them out of a Labour/NZ First government by relegating them to the backwater of confidence and supply) but James Shaw (in possibly a career destroying maneuver) pulled Coates back into line, censured him and his message and then allowed Meteiria Turei to go ballistic on NZ First.

The result was the Greens not only sending mixed messages to the electorate and the other parties but also ultimately ending up sending the wrong message by making it clear that the Greens would tolerate being relegated to confidence and supply and would not do anything to upset the apple-cart while Labour and NZ First divvied up the spoils of forming a government.

And what we are now left with is the deep seated suspicion that a Greens/Labour/NZ First Ménage a trios will never work hardening into a filth encrusted reality; a clear message to Labour that it can flirt all it wants with NZ First and the Greens will suck it up; and (this is the biggie) that this election is almost certainly in the bag for National if they can hold the line for nine more weeks.

That’s right, it’s over, I’m calling it now and saving myself a further nine weeks of watching this freak show of retards trying desperately to pretend that all is well, that a Jeremy Corbin Style last minute surge is just around the corner and all those liberal dreams will come true if they just wish enough.

What is the most disturbing about all of this is that there was a way out and Barry Coates had shown that the Greens (or at least some inside the party) were cognizant of the long hard road out out of electoral hell and would pull the trigger on any antics by Labour (who we all know doesn’t want the Greens except for the previously mentioned confidence and supply) to shove them back down by scuppering any Left of center government which excluded them from the cabinet table.

It’s a position I support, I have always thought that the Greens needed to escape the corner they had painted themselves into and by presenting the credible threat of destabilizing a future Labour government which just took them for granted and cut them out of power, they had done just that. The message was simple; “let us sit at the table or none of us* will sit at the table!”

But Noooooooo, James Shaw (because let’s be honest here, Shaw is running the party now, Turei is just a glorified deputy) cancelled that message and instead rolled over showed his belly and killed stone dead any chance that the Greens will derive any real benefit from this election.

Why is that you ask?

The answer is simple.

Without a credible means for the Greens to escape the confidence and supply corner Labour is free to wheel and deal with NZ First if the numbers get close come polling day with no backlash from the Greens if they are pushed aside, which allows Winston to impose any conditions he likes to give his vote to Labour and the Greens will simply go meekly along.

And if such a situation develops then the Greens will be cut from the cabinet table, given a few scraps to keep them happy and see them reliving 2005 all over again.

But if that was all then there might be a chance of National not being in power after the election but this dumpster fire of a train wreck does not stop there because in launching their attack on NZ First and prompting the predictable Pitbull reply from Winston they demonstrated to the voting public what will happen if these three amigos ever get together in the Beehive.

Because what the Public sees is what we saw in the latest Colmar Brunton polling, with National down 2% but still at 47% (with that lost 2% undoubtedly going to NZ First given it went up 2%) and Labour slumping 3% to 27% while the Greens went up 2% to 11%.

That leaves National strong enough (amazingly in the wake of the Todd Barclay scandal) to hold of a Labour/NZ First Government and almost strong enough to hold off a NZ First/Labour/Greens government (because let’s be honest here Winston has to go with Labour as if he does not then National won’t need him given the Labour/Greens numbers anyway).

It also sees the Greens cannibalizing any vote increase they get from Labour given the shifts we saw which means that the better the Greens looks the worse for Labour and vice versa and nothing else.

And while there is always the possibility of such a three-way government forming it’s the stability of such a beast that will immediately turn most voters off voting for it and send them backing anyone but the Greens or Labour otherwise we would have seen some major shifts in the high 40s that national keeps on polling no matter how badly things get.

To be sure the Greens threat to torpedo an unfaithful Labour was always more effective as a threat and less so if they actually enacted it but as any games theorist knows, a threat has to be credible to be effective and when Shaw pulled Coates into line that threat lost all credibility.

If it had stopped here things would have been prickly but OK but in then going on to lash out at NZ First the Greens doubled down on failure by ensuring that the very outcome they are seeking to avoid will definitely happen now if Andrew Little and Winston Peters ever sit down to form a government.

At best it’s a sacrificial maneuver by the Greens to ensure that Labour and NZ First can oust National but in doing so it guts the Green voter base by selling every single one of them down the river in favor of the MPs, and only the MPs, getting any real payoff if such a government is ever formed.

At worst its dangerous mixed messages and a total turn off for any of that 47% thats gung-ho for National that might have wavered had such stupidity not been enacted.

So if you’re a Green voter, you have been pushed out into the cold by Shaw and Co so they can get to be MPs but remain outside government and even worse NZ First will get to call the shots and there will be nothing the Greens can do about it.

And with the Greens attack on NZ First you can guarantee that Winnie will be making very sure that the Greens stay well away from the levers of power while he gets exactly whatever he asks for by a desperate Labour post election.

In some way I can see the demented logic that Shaw is operating on but it is, in essence, throwing himself (and the party) on the grenade that is National to ensure that someone else (Labour and NZ First) gets to benefit.

So with nine weeks before we go to the polls how well do you think this little exercise in political expediency will go down? Will this draw any more voters to the Green camp or will it send them back to Labour or even worse to National or the NZ First.

For me I can’t see this ending well as selling out your constituents normally happens after you are secure in power not before.

What happens now is that everything, again, hinges on Winston where as if the Greens had stuck with the line tossed out by Barry Coates things could have hinged on the Greens instead but the Greens then attacking Winston makes it all the more easy for National to sell any deal it might want if they need to based on the "any government but those three idiots" argument.

And in such a volatile environment we now have to deal with a resurgent NZ First that is willing to be wined and dined by both National and Labour while the Greens return to being the Bridesmaid, again, and all possibility of a Green agenda gets washed aside in Winston's rhetoric or Little’s brainless political platitudes.

For me this is the shift I noted a year ago when I first discussed the changes Shaw had made on the Greens when he took over to make the party in his own image and its all now crystallizing into a cascade of failure.

I also feel the need to add here that this is not a scenario that I was wanting to see or am happy about but if the Greens feel that this is the way forward then so be it, its their party and they will end up crying.

*-“Us” being Labour/NZ First and the Greens.

Elections 2017: Minor political parties you might not know about (but might want to consider voting for).

It was a bitterly cold Wellington afternoon and Q and I were walking the grounds of Parliament eating ice cream.*

We had discussed our usual topics of the day and were now idly speculating on the outcome of the coming election as we strolled past the statue of "King Dick" Seddon out the front of his old place of work.

What surprised me was that Q was unsure who to vote for this time and seemed to be having a crisis of the faith as he was not able to bring himself to even consider voting Labour (his usual party) this September.

When I suggested (jokingly) that he try National this time he made a pained face and muttered something under his breath which is as much of an angry profanity that his gentle nature would allow.

I then proposed the usual litany of other possible candidates (Greens, Maori, ACT, United Future and NZ First) but Q's mood only deepened and he seemed fixated on finishing his ice cream.

So we walked around the parliamentary library, up Hill Street and past the British High Commission before he suddenly stopped and turned to look back down the hill towards the National Archives and the empty Defence House on Aitken Street. I stopped too, knowing my friend well enough to see that he was about to say something very serious.

And there we stood, two middle aged, middle tier, civil servants, rugged up against the bitterly cold Wellington wind, clutching half eaten ice-creams: me looking expectantly at him and him staring out across the harbor as if he was expecting something to appear above the Rimutakas.

"I think I will lodge a protest vote" he said slowly before returning to his ice cream and starting back down the hill without a further word. I stood for a few moments considering this before hurrying after him.

We then wandered through the back end of parliament with its combination or parking lot, green lawn and those two abstract stone sculptures (where we, and others, lunch in the warmer months) and discussed the matter further.

And it was there that we settled on the notion that it was important to vote as a democratic right but its was also equally important to make that vote count, if only as an expression of disgust at the state of NZ politics.

So if the thought of casting your vote in September is making you feel queasy then take solace in the fact that your not alone.

And in summing up each of the main parties in a single word/phrase its easy to see why.

National = Corruption**
Labour = Ineptitude
NZ First = Self-interest
Greens = Compromised
United Future = Expired
ACT = Rabid
Maori = Divided

None of the main parties does anything in voters minds but make them wonder what is the point of voting when one is as bad as the other and its in such fertile ground that the specter of FukYoo Politix raises its head and your vote ends up maintaining the status quo (National) because your too apathetic do do anything about it or dancing down the primrose path to the tune of some populist  promise that will never come true (NZ First).

Even worse you might still be caught in your primitive political loyalties which mean just because you voted such way once you will keep on voting that way forever no matter what they do (Labour) or (even worse still) back some idealist who will sell you out the instant they get their hands on the levers of power (the Greens).

Or you could find yourself backing political hacks (United Future) who swing whichever way the wind blows or supporting some political make work scheme for elite interests (ACT)***.

And lets be very clear here, few (if any) potential outcomes of this election are going to be something to dance in the streets over.

Either its National, swinging open the death camp doors, for another three years or Labour/Greens and NZ First congealed together into some unstable mutant of a government of competing ambitions and egos with no chance of survival.

Perhaps we might get "blessed" with some bizarre combination of parties all scrabbling to make and maintain a government while all those issues (you know the ones) which are ruining this nation get worse and worse while those we voted in to fix them just enjoy their new and improved salary, office and travel perks and do diddly squat.

Its then, when you see such a bleak landscape, that even the lure of self interest looses its pull as you realize that unless your tipping a third or more of the average wage into a parties coffers your not going to be getting anything back in return except the modern day equivalents of beads and blankets, baubles to keep you occupied while the man in the red tights stears the hand basket into the flames.

But even if NZ, and much of the world, is becoming a clusterf**k it is still a democracy and like any enraged democratic consumer we still have the right to refuse to smile when we are thrown over the concrete traffic barrier, greased up like a 50s Doo-wop hairdoo and then hosed down to the tune of free market cultists and their catamites chanting "whose been a bad boy?" over and over.

No sir, you don't have to smile when being abused for the sordid gratification of others; you do have to clench your teeth and take it until the all that pent up anger spills out in some explosion of nerd rage that takes you back to that day when you were five years old in Mrs Larson's class and Nigel M hassled the hair cut your mum gave you, calling it a "bowl cut" again and again until you snapped and went into a desk flipping frenzy that ended with you sobbing hysterically in the cloak rooms afterwards while the care taker was called to take you home.

So if your going to use your vote as some sort of political middle finger then you need the kind of middle finger thats stiff, hoary and has knuckles like walnuts so that when they tally up the vote count they know you voted but you are not endorsing any agenda they, or the rest the clowns, are pushing.

By using your vote in a fantastical, seemingly pointless or even just bizarre manner you continue to reaffirm the democratic ideal but don't have to crawl painfully away after and spend the next few years bitterly arguing with other partisan tools about who you did, or did not, vote for, concocting outlandish and strange theories why things are still getting worse and how things would only be better if "people had just seen reason" and ticked the box like teacher told them to.

Thus come September 2017 it is going to be the season of the protest vote, no more backing the turds in the bowl which refuse to sink no matter how much you flush, this year your going to taking that big knuckled, middle finger and be jamming it up the backsides of Bill, Andrew, James, Winston, Peter, Paula, Gerry, Jacinta, Grant or any other of those who are now going to have to work that little bit harder when they lie to prevent another "ugly insertion".

And maybe, just maybe, if we insert enough fingers come polling day we may be able to send a message, a terrible un-clipped fingernails, first time rodeo type of message to those in the Beehive who have let us down time and again and sold us out.

So check out the list below of those who you should be voting for on that crazy September Saturday because your vote is the only chance every three years you get to send a clear message (unless your planning to climb a clock tower with a rifle) which has any definite effect on those who would rather we just shut up and sit down while they eat all the pies.

In no particular order are those parties that are currently registered:

The Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party: With discussion of potential law reform in this area what better way to send a message and get the munchies at the same time.  But seriously, the arguments against medical marijuana have never made sense (unless your a pharmaceutical company with a competing product) and with alcohol doing more damage daily then people smoking weed it makes sense. Check them out here.

The Internet Party:With a platform of cheaper and faster internet, clean energy and green technology as well as restrictions on the security services and the TPPA these guys could easily pick up the fallen mantel of ethics before politics that the Greens used to have before they decided to be "fiscally responsible". Don't let their previous association with Kim Dot Com fool you, there is a lot to like about what they advocate. Download them here.

Mana Party: Forget Hone Harawira being demonized in the media and think of Mana based on their policies of a living wage, tax on financial transactions, nationalization of monopolies and duopolies and more state houses. Their alliance with the Maori party is a marriage of convenience not one of vision. Website here.

Ban 1080 Party: for just $5 dollars you can join this party and save the forests. As someone who has woken to bird song many many times I have a soft spot for these guys and have never felt that 1080 was the only way to solve the problem of pests in our native forests. Save the birds here.

Democrats for Social Credit Party: These guys have been around and got over 100,000 votes in the 1987 election. Lets see if they can get that again. I like their ideas of reforming the present monetary system, their wish to remove GST and their Universal basic income plan. Sign up here.

NZ Peoples Party: Any party that gets Winston's goat because they focus on the rights of immigrants can also get my vote because I am the son of an immigrant and we are a nation of immigrants. I'm still for safe boarders and security but that has nothing to do with people who want to come to NZ and live lawfully. Learn more about them here.

I have omitted The Opportunities Party because I am working on a post on them and Gareth Morgan is less a protest vote than another rich mans political fantasy and the Conservative Party for exactly the same reason (the fantasy not the post writing).

After finishing our ice-creams Q and I walked back towards his place of work on Stout Street. He was smiling and seemed to be in a better mood and I sensed that he was looking forward to September now the same way I used to look forward to water bombing the occupants at the bus stop outside my local girls school as a teen.

For the record, Q is as establishment as they come and when someone like him starts to smile at the idea of electing some political unknown "just because" I know its not just an one off idea but something that is far larger and just waiting for a push.

Of course the main parties will likely predominate come the day after and you might even be called a fool for wasting your vote but if you consider the definition of insanity to be "doing the same thing over and over but expecting a different result" then doing something different this year, and endorsing anyone but the regular brand of gormless politician, by voting for one of the small parties I have listed above, then you  are neither a fool nor apathetic but giving our ailing democracy a shot in the arm and exercising your democratic right to elect any crazy loon you choose.

And who knows they might just turn out to be better than what we have now.


*-Why? Because that's what we always have after lunch when we get together, regardless of the weather.
**-Although if I was allowed two extra words they would be arrogance and hubris
***- Which works if you are a member of the elite otherwise it makes no bloody sense

Elections 2017: Neutralising Winston (Updated)

File this under pure political speculation.

UPDATE - at the bottom.

I read Phillip Burdon's article about Winston Peters on Stuff this week and realized I may have helped to create a monster.


For well over six months now I have been hammering away at both National and Labour as being past their use date political hacks while continually pointing at Winston's (and NZ Firsts) inevitable position as kingmaker come vote day in September no matter how the stats play out.

And if you're a National or Labour party member that has to be the number one thing on your mind at this time.

Think about it for a moment: here is the grim faced fact that no matter which way you turn, no matter how well you poll the odds are that come September 24 your going to have to pick up the phone and call Winston and cut a deal to form a government whether your are Bill English or Andrew Little.

And we all know how such deals turn out, the track record for Winston's political partners is not good.

Few of those propped up can really say they benefited from having Winston throw them a life line because while in the sheer, short term, desperation of needing to form a government and therefore being willing to lay down with whatever wolf shows up at the door, the idea of working with Winston might make sense (and I say "might").

But in the mid and long term, the view (given the subsequent beatings each party took in the polls after he helped them maintain a third term government) show Winston more as a political opportunist and wastrel (some might say "parasite") that exploits the desperation of the moment to further his own (and not his supporters) ends while leaving a house in disorder.

So while I do think that the Winston Peters/NZ First bandwagon will reap big come election day (although I remain unconvinced that adding Shane Jones to the mix is really a good idea) I think its only fair to discuss any possible ways and means to limit the damage that Winston may do as a means of karmicly balancing my previous vitriol directed at National and Labour.

And the best place to start would be figuring out a way to limit the votes NZ First is going to get come polling day.

One way of doing that would be for either or both parties to run explicitly anti-Winston campaigns (think your usual electoral scare mongering) with ads directly targeting NZ First by playing on the (very possible) fears of what NZ First might entail if it gets a say in any future government rather than bashing each other.

Heck, maybe Labour and National could even join forces (much like the US/UK and USSR joined forces to take down Nazi Germany in WW2 before turning against each other in the Cold War) against the common foe.

Its an improbable scenario but not impossible as neither National or Labour are likely to have forgotten what it was like having to kowtow to Winston in the desperate need to form previous governments and how such grovelling came to end.

Then there is the scandal method with some mud being slung or some lever being pulled (ala US politics with an "official investigation" or "incident") just before polling day to make a dent in his popularity. Although such a thing has the potential to backfire and actually boost him up rather than tear him down.

Unlike Kim Dotcom and his attempts to blast the opposition in 2014, Winston is seasoned and savvy and has rarely been damaged by any scandal for long (the worst being the 2008 funding scandal) so its very possible that any frame up could have blowback rather than taking him down.

A more possible angle could be to exploit the recent appointment of Shane Jones to the party and his previous history (probably to the secret delight of Ron Mark) or simply taking a more methodical approach to slandering the party by breaking down its members and its politics in the media and on the campaign trail.

But again there are problems as this is less about removing voters from the party but more about preventing those in other parties jumping across to the good ship Winston (as Audrey Yong has recently noted) and any attack by the "the Man" on Peters will only accentuate his outsider status, so if such a method was to be used it would have to come from without (such as the Greens or Labour).

All of these methods would have to take place before the election and with time to damage Peters and the party but without enough time for them to recover, it would not be complete Dirty Politics but it would be very close.

The crux on which this argument hangs is the damage Winston would do to both the party and the inevitable coalition government he would help form vrs any benefit to whichever party (because realistically no party is going to factor in any damage to the nation) that formed such a government and such calculations are far too esoteric in so many ways to really compute so its deep dark waters into which any potential Cassandra sails.

Then there is the more possible (but also unlikely)* option of the formation (or strengthening) of political alliances (ala the Greens and Labour) which are often designed to shut out potential rivals by stitching up voter share in particular sectors of the political spectrum.

Could the Labour/Greens alliance hold if Labour made enough on the day to go it alone with NZ First? Its something I speculated about when I was still blogging over at KP and I encourage readers to check it out as the mechanics of the argument then still hold up now.

Or more fantastical, could we see National and Labour try for some broad based government rather than climb into bed with Winston?

Still even more fantastiker, how about a spurned Greens getting revenge on Labour for two-timing it with NZ First by rebounding into an (opposite attract style) relationship with National and forming a government?

No, I suspect that these options are well past any political reality or sanity but in an election where a populist outcome is the worst possible situation for either of the two big mainstream parties perhaps making such moves to head off the FukYoo politix posse at the pass might be a final desperate option to prevent the political Gotterdammerung that a Winston Peters, pulsing vigorously with a angry populist mandate, might enact on them (and the government) if given the chance.

Its the political equivalent of a Hail Mary pass, a final desperate gamble to stave of an otherwise inevitable outcome and  while I think we are in for some rough times ahead give the mood of the country I don't think either Bill or Andrew feels that backed into a corner, yet.

Outside of these pre-election options there is the possibility of doing a deal but seeking to limit the power of Peters post election but again with the populist mood there is a very real danger of a Thersa May/brexit backlash and the chaos and anarchy of a weak minority government and all that such entails.

The only other option is a variation of the pre-election, anti-Peters, coalition which would be to seek a broad, cross party base to build on, which while not to either Labours or Nationals liking would effectively cut Winston out of the process and save on all the damage he could do (if only to open up many other cans of Lumbricus terrestris.

But as I said at the start all of this is pure speculation in the wake of NZ First polling well and the inherent weakness of the other parties (yes including third term National) which have done so much to create the monster that is now threatening to destroy their fragile house of cards.

I end this by saying that while there is nothing conclusive to say that Peters and NZ First would be the worst possible option in helping to create a new government the inherent tensions in NZ politics and the current volatility of the electorate are highly combustible elements and adding a political phoenix like Peters into the mix could have unpredictable results.

What would those results be?

UPDATE

After some consideration this could be our "unpredictable result".

With national at 46%, Labour on 26% and the Greens round 10% that means that even if Labour and the Greens can work together they still need another 10% to get over the line.

And who has that 10%? Winston Peters.

But if that's the case then its not a sellers market for NZ First as National would not need Winston's help to rule and that forces him to go with Labour and the Greens.

This is not the ideal setup for any of the three while National could rule alone or with Maori or ACT as lapdogs.

Winstons power comes from a tight electoral majority and not a big one and if National can hold the line then that's what will happen and NZ First will have its back broken.

This is a scenario I have raised before but as a friend of mine pointed out tonight this drives Winston to either play with Andrew and James or go back out into the cold.

Neither is a good option for Peters and such a menage a trois  is almost doomed to fail.

If you think this is an unlikely option go have a look at the latest political polling.

The only scenario where this will not go down bad for NZ First is if Bill English suffers some sort of Thersa May beating and then Winston can name his price.

And even if that happens the situation is either National propped up by Peters or a doomed trio of Peters, Little and Shaw trying desperately to keep it cool while competing forces tear them apart as Peters and Little can go it alone without the Shaw and the Greens.

This is an inevitability short of some major shift in potential election results (Gareth Morgan are you listening?).

So on second thoughts maybe Winston is netralised already.

*-Yes, that's correct.