tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2932158055298887404.post3618553017862302083..comments2024-02-06T23:47:42.873+14:00Comments on KiwiFirewalker: Elections 2017: Ready, steady ….. Ugh!E.A.Blairhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11041002150165406443noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2932158055298887404.post-386984613481736572017-01-22T22:30:12.284+14:002017-01-22T22:30:12.284+14:00Hi Paul:
I'm not sure if your disagreeing wit...Hi Paul:<br /><br />I'm not sure if your disagreeing with my analysis or that NZ First will get 15%.<br /><br />If its NZ First, I'm not saying they will get 15% but that the current gap between a National/NZ First coalition and A Labour/Green coalition is (based on current polling) 15%.<br /><br />That's what Greens/Labour need to beat to get into government and that's avoiding any extra seats Maori/Mana might give over as well.<br /><br />Of course things will tighten up come election time but the fact that there is a gap will remain and getting across it will be the challenge for Labour.<br /><br />I am willing to agree that anything could happen between now and polling day but I think the Labour doldrums will remain until something major happens to the party.<br /><br />I do like the imagery of Winston on acid but a whole new picture.<br /><br />If your disagreeing with the general analysis that's another thing.<br /><br />I'm open to evidence that Winston will play nice with Labour or the Greens but I have yet to see anything to that effect so far. Again if its out there and I am made aware of it I will rethink my position but I have yet to see anything like that so far.<br /><br />Perhaps if Gareth Morgan comes into play but I still struggle to see that effecting the overall dynamic.<br /><br />The only certainty at this time is its fruitful times ahead for any party which can capture the popular mood.E.A.Blairhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11041002150165406443noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2932158055298887404.post-69041445872984812822017-01-22T21:31:24.183+14:002017-01-22T21:31:24.183+14:00Mostly dreaming. NZ First with 15% will only with ...Mostly dreaming. NZ First with 15% will only with Green if <br />Winston starts drinking acid, or gets invited to be PM. <br />Your post on China sea good though. paul scotthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15675247055484136242noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2932158055298887404.post-50219310158018221822017-01-20T14:16:51.951+14:002017-01-20T14:16:51.951+14:00Fair point but that is simply because I think the ...Fair point but that is simply because I think the problem with Labour leaders is that they might sometimes get the right people but the party base seems fractious enough to never allow them to really lead if they do have the potential. Hence the revolving door of leaders.<br /><br />But if forced to say who I think would make a great Labour leader I would say Grant Robertson. He was the bridesmaid after Little this time but having seen him speak and do this thing I think he would be a better leader if only because he seems able to convince people that he means what he says.<br /><br />To follow your point though, do you think Andrew Little is the man for the job? I don't mind if you do but don't you think he has to start doing something about the situation Labour is in if it wants to be government?E.A.Blairhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11041002150165406443noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2932158055298887404.post-49756055173596220282017-01-20T13:40:18.796+14:002017-01-20T13:40:18.796+14:00I think the fact that you admit that you don't...I think the fact that you admit that you don't know who would replace Little, and presumably don't also know what they would do differently/better, shows exactly how much merit the idea of replacing him has.Atrotoshttp://www.krypteia.orgnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2932158055298887404.post-89914209327306095252017-01-20T08:08:30.386+14:002017-01-20T08:08:30.386+14:00Atrotos:
Thanks for you comment.
I will admit yo...Atrotos:<br /><br />Thanks for you comment.<br /><br />I will admit you do have a point regarding the process of leadership selection repeating itself but the situation explains itself in that previous candidates (Phill Goff aside somewhat) have been found wanting and as such (at least as in how leadership relates to polling and policy) Labour remain in the same position they were in since 2008, or worse.<br /><br />Im not suggesting another round of leadership challenge just for the fun of it but because its clear that without a good leadership organisations fail and in politics especially having a good face for the party is important. <br /><br />Also the number don't lie, Labour has to find a way to make up the numbers if it wants to be government in December and part of that lies with good leadership and an effective and galvanized party machine. Under Little Labour is still struggling to build any effective of coherent policy to distance itself from National and as such get seen as a liter version.<br /><br />I would agree with you that its pointless to load the bike up and head for the wall again in expectation of another crash but I am not sure thats the right analogy for a leadership situation because if it is Little has had a longer run at the wall than others yet he is still going to crash into it.<br /><br />I like to look at it as Labour needs to build up sufficient momentum to remain upright, ala like riding a bike and speed is an essential component of that (unless your some sort of trick cyclist - which Little is not) but without the wall and maybe some sort of ramp and tank of water like situation, add in some falmes and a shark (jumping the shark?!) and I think that is a better way to view the situation.<br /><br />Little is currently heading towards the tank but its clear to the crowd watching that his speed is not enough to make the leap and the tank (and the flames and shark) is already full of charred bodies and wrecked bikes of the previous attempts.<br /><br />If I genuinely thought Little had it in him I would back him but as I have said before there seems to be nothing he has demonstrated to show he can lead NZ.<br /><br />Lets see if we can avoid the brick wall this time.<br /><br />E.A.Blairhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11041002150165406443noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2932158055298887404.post-9543816525122502332017-01-20T01:07:55.254+14:002017-01-20T01:07:55.254+14:00Ah yes, "Labour would do better if they just ...Ah yes, "Labour would do better if they just ditched their leader".<br /><br />We've been hearing this basically without stopping since 2008. Multiple Labour leader changers in, without the game-changing poll jumps each leadership change promised, it's amazing anybody is still promoting it. But sure, you rode your bicycle into the brick wall four times, that doesn't mean that the fifth time it won't work out, right?Atrotoshttp://www.kypria.orgnoreply@blogger.com